000 AXNT20 KNHC 031815 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Nov 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Caribbean Sea Invest Area (AL97): A broad 1006 mb low is persisting at the southwestern Caribbean Sea north of northwestern Colombia. Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring just north of Panama and northwestern Colombia. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are evident north of Panama and northwestern Colombia to near 14N. This system is expected to gradually develop while moving northward to northwestward over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form. It could also bring heavy rain to Jamaica, Hispaniola, Cuba and the Cayman Islands. There is a high chance of tropical development for this system and residents in the Western Caribbean need to monitor it closely. Atlantic Significant Swell: Wind waves produced by strong to near-gale force ENE winds along with large easterly swell will continue to produce 12 to 14 ft seas from 22N to 27N between the southeast and central Bahamas and 68W through Monday morning. By late Monday afternoon, these seas is going to shift northward, reaching from 25N to 30N. Starting Tuesday evening, both winds and seas should gradually subside. Please see the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. Central America and Northwestern Colombia Heavy Rainfall: A broad area of low pressure is anticipated to develop along the monsoon trough over Central America over the next few days. Moist onshore flow from the East Pacific Ocean will probably enhance heavy rainfall across Costa Rica, Panama and the coastal areas of northwestern Colombia. This will increase the potential on flash flooding and mudslides. Please monitor this developing situation and refer to your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 13N southward, and moving westward 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 45W and 50W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, then reaches southwestward to 08N18W. An ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 05N26W, turns northwestward to 10N45W, and then from 09N51W westward to 09N57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge runs southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present at the northwestern and west-central Gulf. Fresh ENE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas exist across the Florida Straits. Gentle SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted at the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned surface ridge and troughs over Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean are supporting fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds across the northwestern Gulf will strengthen tonight into Tue as a cold front slowly approaches eastern Texas. Fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will develop in the Straits of Florida late tonight, and continue into midweek as broad low pressure slowly develops over the western Caribbean. Looking ahead, although there remains some uncertainty with development and track of the low pressure, expect strong winds and rough seas across much of the eastern Gulf Wed into Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about Invest Area AL97, and potential heavy rainfall across Central America and the Caribbean Sea. An upper-level trough curves southeastward from a low just north of Puerto Rico across the Lesser Antilles. These features are triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Dominican Republic southwestward across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Lesser Antilles. A surface trough south of the Yucatan Channel is causing similar conditions from the Gulf of Honduras eastward to near Jamaica. Outside the influence of Invest Area AL97, gentle to moderate NW to NE to SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are present across the southwestern, central and eastern basin. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail at the northwestern basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong high pressure ridge north of the area and lower pressure over the southwestern basin will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage today. A broad area of low pressure is over the southwestern basin. Regardless of the development of AL97, active showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the western and central Caribbean associated with the area of low pressure. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about significant swell at the western Atlantic. A cold front curves southwestward from near Madeira across 31N16W to 20N35W, then continues westward as a stationary front to a 1010 mb low east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Patchy showers are seen up to 50 nm along either side of this boundary east of 50W. West of 50W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 100 nm along either side of this boundary and low pressure. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Significant Swell area mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present north of 22N between 60W and the Florida- Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in large N swell exist north of 20N between 40W and 60W. To the south from the Equator to 20N/22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in large mixed swells prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a broad trough extends from central Hispaniola to 25N65W. The pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure north of the region is supporting strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas across the waters northwest of the trough. The trough will shift westward through Mon, as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. This pattern will support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough to very rough seas across the basin by midweek $$ Chan