000 AXNT20 KNHC 040600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Nov 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN (PTC-18)... The center of the Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, at 04/0600 UTC, is close to 14.0N 76.9W. This position also is about 240 nm/ 445 km to the south of Kingston in Jamaica, and about 402 nm/745 km to the southeast of Grand Cayman. EIGHTEEN is moving toward the north/360 degrees 05 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Expect strong to near gale-force SE winds, and rough seas, within 14N74W 16N76W 16N78W 13N79W 11N77W 12N76W 14N74W, for the next 12 hours or so. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia from 04N to 07N between 73W and 77W; in Colombia and in Venezuela from 08N to 11N between 72W and 75W; and off the coast of northern Colombia from 12N to 14N between 71W and 73W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico westward, including in the Windward Passage. Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean Sea with the heaviest rainfall in Jamaica and in southern Cuba through the middle of the week. The expected rainfall totals range from 3 inches to 6 inches, with local amounts possibly reaching 9 inches. Flooding and mudslides are possible in parts of Jamaica and Cuba. Heavy rainfall will spread northward into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeastern United States from the middle of the week to later in the week. Swells that are going to be generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Please, consult bulletins and forecasts that are from your local weather bureau office. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Eighteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL... Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale-force NE- to-E winds, and rough to very rough seas, from 22N to 29N between 64W and 76W. Expect strong winds and rough seas, elsewhere from 10N to 30N between 30W and 79W. Please, refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites... https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details. ...CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA HEAVY RAINFALL... Abundant moisture that is related to the Central American Gyre, and Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, will lead to enhanced heavy rainfall in Costa Rica, in Panama, and in the coastal areas of northwestern Colombia. The moisture and the rainfall will increase the potential for flash floods and mudslides. Please, monitor this developing situation, and refer to your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 08N to 14N between 37W and 44W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 09N between 38W and 44W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the areas that are within 720 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W, to 06N25W 03N33W 03N43W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 37W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through the northern sections of Florida, toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward. Moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Near-rough to rough seas are from 26N to 29N between 92W and 95W. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 22N northward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A broad high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic into the southeastern U.S. The pressure gradient between this ridge and troughs over Mexico and the northwest Caribbean are supporting fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region. Moderate to fresh SE winds across the northwestern part of the basin will strengthen tonight into Tue as a cold front slowly approaches E Texas. Looking ahead, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is becoming better organized in the southwest Caribbean, and may move across western Cuba into the southeastern Gulf by Tue night or Wed morning as a strong tropical storm or hurricane, then move into the north-central Gulf Fri. Marine interests in the eastern Gulf should continue to monitor the latest advisories from National Hurricane Center on the development and track of Eighteen. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about PTC-18 and the threat for heavy rainfall in Central America and in the Caribbean Sea. Expect strong to near-gale force NE-to-E winds, and rough seas, from 17N northward between 79W and 85W. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, are from 72W eastward, away from the Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. An upper level trough is in the NW corner of the area, to the northwest of the Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is in the water vapor imagery from 17N northward from 80W westward. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from the northern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to southern Belize, to the coastal waters of NE Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N to 19N from 79W westward. Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is near 13.3N 76.9W at 10 PM EST, and is moving north at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Eighteen will move to 14.2N 76.9W Mon morning, 16.0N 77.6W Mon evening, 17.9N 78.9W Tue morning, 19.8N 80.9W Tue evening, and will reach hurricane intensity near 21.8N 82.9W Wed morning before moving north of the area across western Cuba. Moderate winds and seas can be expected elsewhere into mid week. Large NE to E swell may enter the Atlantic passages of the northeastern Caribbean Thu into Fri. Winds and seas will diminish elsewhere across the basin later in the week as Eighteen moves into the Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about the Atlantic Ocean significant swell event. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 24N67W, to the NW corner of the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the Greater Antilles to 25N between 65W and 76W. A second NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 25N63W 24N55W 22N46W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 20N to 25N between 51W and 55W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the areas that are from 17N to 27N between 40W and 76W. A third surface trough is along 31N14W 23N20W 20N30W 20N40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 19N northward from 40W eastward. A cold front/stationary front is from 31N to 33N from 60W westward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 28N northward from 60W westward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from monsoon trough/the ITCZ northward from 40W eastward. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from the monsoon trough/the ITCZ southward from 40W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A trough extends from central Hispaniola to 23N68W. The pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure north of the region is supporting strong to near gale- force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas across the waters northwest of the trough. The trough will shift westward through Mon, as building high pressure north of the area follows a cold front moving across the western Atlantic before becoming stationary and weakening along 22N by Wed. High pressure building to the north will support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough to very rough seas across the basin by mid week. Looking ahead, a trough will develop along the dissipating front, north of the Leeward Islands by Thu, then move west across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Fri. $$ mt/al