000 AXNT20 KNHC 040929 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Nov 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC-18): Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is centered near 14.2N 76.9W at 04/0900 UTC or 230 nm S of Kingston Jamaica, moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. seas are peaking near 11 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 71W and 78W. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm today and pass near Jamaica tonight and Tuesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night as the system approaches western Cuba. The system will then move into the SE Gulf Wed morning. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean, including the island of Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid- week. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Eighteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell: NE to E swell along with wind waves produced by strong to near- gale force ENE winds will continue is producing seas of 12 to 14 ft NE of the Central Bahamas. Very rough seas will move northward this afternoon, reaching from 25N to 30N. Starting Tue evening, both winds and seas should gradually subside. Please see the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. Central America and Northwestern Colombia Heavy Rainfall: Abundant moisture advecting across portions of Central America from the broad circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will lead to enhanced heavy rainfall across Costa Rica, Panama and the coastal areas of northwestern Colombia. The heavy rainfall will bring the potential for flash flooding and mudslides. Please refer to your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 47W/48W, from 13N southward, moving westward at around 5 to 10 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 37W and 46W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 10N13W to 07N19W where it transitions to ITCZ and continues to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 15W and 33W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about PTC-18. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft prevail over the NW Gulf. A broad high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic into the southeastern U.S. The pressure gradient between this ridge and troughs over Mexico and the northwest Caribbean is supporting fresh winds and moderate seas across the remainder of the Gulf region. For the forecast, a broad high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic into the southeastern U.S. The pressure gradient between this ridge and troughs over Mexico and the northwest Caribbean are supporting fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region. Moderate to fresh SE winds across the northwestern part of the basin will strengthen tonight into Tue as a cold front slowly approaches E Texas. Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is becoming better organized in the southwest Caribbean, and may move across western Cuba into the southeastern Gulf Wed morning as a strong tropical storm or hurricane, then move into the north-central Gulf Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding about PTC-18 and the threat for heavy rainfall across Central America and the Caribbean Sea. Aside from PTC Eighteen, fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are in the lee of Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is near 14.2N 76.9W at 4 AM EST, and is moving north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Eighteen will reach tropical storm intensity near 15.5N 77.1W this afternoon, then move to 17.3N 78.3W Tue morning, 19.1N 79.9W Tue afternoon, and will reach hurricane intensity near 20.8N 81.7W Wed morning before moving north of the area across western Cuba. Moderate winds and seas can be expected elsewhere into mid week. Large NE to E swell may enter the Atlantic passages of the northeastern Caribbean Thu into Fri. Winds and seas will diminish elsewhere across the basin later in the week as Eighteen moves into the Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding the significant swell across the western Atlantic. A trough extends from Hispaniola to 26N63W. The pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure north of the region is supporting strong to near gale- force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas across the waters northwest of the trough. Farther east, a 1018 mb high is centered near 28N48W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas of 6-9 ft prevail elsewhere in northerly swell. For the forecast W of 55W, the trough north of Hispaniola will shift westward today, as building high pressure north of the area follows a cold front moving across the western Atlantic before becoming stationary and weakening along 22N by Wed. High pressure building to the north will support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough to very rough seas across the basin by mid week. Looking ahead, a trough will develop along the dissipating front, north of the Leeward Islands by Thu, then move west across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Fri. $$ AL