000 AXNT20 KNHC 042335 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Nov 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rafael: Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rafael is centered near 15.5N 76.7W at 04/2100 UTC or 150 nm S of Kingston Jamaica, moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are peaking from 8 to 10 ft near the center. Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from 13N to 19N between 73W and 80W. Rafael is expected to have a northwestward motion later tonight and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. Steady to rapid strengthening is now forecast and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. In addition, TD Eighteen will likely bring heavy rain across Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands and western Haiti. For the latest Eighteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information. Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell: Large easterly swell along with wind waves produced by strong to near-gale force ENE winds will continue is producing seas of 12 to 14 ft from 24N to 27N between 71W and the central and southwestern Bahamas. These conditions will expand northward to near 29N tonight. Starting Tue evening, both winds and seas should gradually subside. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 13N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 46W and 51W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough stays mostly over the Africa continent. An ITCZ extends west-southwestward from just off the Guinea coast to 07N33W, then turns northwestward to 11N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and up to 100 nm south of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rafael. A surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are present at the northwestern Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rafael is near 15.5N 76.7W at 4 PM EST, and is moving north at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Rafael will move to 16.8N 77.6W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.5N 79.1W Tue afternoon, 20.2N 80.8W Wed morning, 22.1N 82.4W Wed afternoon, 23.6N 83.8W Thu morning, and 24.7N 85.0W Thu afternoon. Rafael will change little in intensity as it northward through the Gulf of Mexico Fri. Elsewhere, a broad high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic into the southeastern U.S. The pressure gradient between this ridge and troughs over Mexico and the northwest Caribbean are supporting fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rafael. An upper-level low and related upper-level trough are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras and near the Cayman Islands. Converging southerly winds are producing scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms across the central basin. Outside the direct influence from TS Rafael, gentle to moderate NW to N to SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are evident across the southwestern, central and eastern basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail at the northwestern basin. For the forecast, newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rafael is near 15.5N 76.7W at 4 PM EST, and is moving north at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Rafael will move to 16.8N 77.6W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.5N 79.1W Tue afternoon, 20.2N 80.8W Wed morning, 22.1N 82.4W Wed afternoon, 23.6N 83.8W Thu morning, and 24.7N 85.0W Thu afternoon. Rafael will change little in intensity as it northward away from the region Fri. Moderate winds and seas can be expected elsewhere into mid week. Large NE to E swell may enter the Atlantic passages of the northeastern Caribbean Thu into Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding the significant swell across the western Atlantic. A stationary front stretches eastward from a 1010 mb low over the southeast Bahamas to a 1011 mb low near 24N54W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found near and south of these features to near 20N. A cold front stretches north of the stationary front from 31N50W to 31N73W which is also contributing to the widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas. A surface trough is generating similar convection east of Trinidad and Tobago from 10N to 13N between 52W and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Besides the strong to near-gale winds mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong ENE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are seen north of 20N between 60W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Farther east, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present north of 20N between 35W and 60W. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rafael is near 15.5N 76.7W at 4 PM EST, and is moving north at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Rafael will move to 16.8N 77.6W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.5N 79.1W Tue afternoon, 20.2N 80.8W Wed morning, 22.1N 82.4W Wed afternoon, 23.6N 83.8W Thu morning, and 24.7N 85.0W Thu afternoon. Rafael will change little in intensity as it northward through the Gulf of Mexico Fri. Otherwise, a trough extends from Hispaniola to 26N63W. The pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure north of the region is supporting strong to near gale- force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas across the waters northwest of the trough. The trough will shift westward today, as building high pressure north of the area follows a cold front moving across the western Atlantic before becoming stationary and weakening along 22N by Wed. $$ AReinhart