000 AXNT20 KNHC 050444 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0444 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rafael: Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rafael is centered near 16.3N 77.2W at 05/0300Z UTC or 104 NM S of Kingston Jamaica, moving N- NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are peaking 14 ft west of the center. Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from 13N to 19N between 74W and 79W. Rafael is expected to turn northwestward with a little more acceleration is anticipated over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to be near Jamaica on Tuesday morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36 h, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba. For the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information. Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell: Large easterly swell along with wind waves produced by strong to near-gale force ENE winds will continue is producing seas of 12 to 14 ft from 24N to 28N between 69W and the central and southwestern Bahamas. These conditions will expand northward to near 30N late tonight. Starting Tue evening, both winds and seas should gradually subside. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated and is now near 47W from 13N southward. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08.5N to 12.5N between 46W and 49W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean near 12N17W and extends to 10N18W. The ITCZ Extends from 10N18W and extends west- southwestward to 07N44W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 01N to 08N between 24W and 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Tropical Storm Rafael. A surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to the central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are present at the northwestern Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rafael is near 16.3N 77.2W at 10 PM EST, and is moving north-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Rafael will move to 17.6N 78.3W Tue morning, 19.4N 79.9W Tue evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 21.4N 81.6W Wed morning, 23.3N 83.1W Wed evening, 24.6N 84.3W Thu morning, and 25.4N 85.3W Thu evening. Rafael will change little in intensity as it moves to near 26.6N 87.6W late Fri. Elsewhere, a broad high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic into the southeastern U.S. The pressure gradient between this ridge and troughs over Mexico and the northwest Caribbean are supporting fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region, except for the NW Gulf where strong winds will prevail tonight. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Tropical Storm Rafael. Converging southerly winds are producing scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms across eastern basin. Outside the direct influence from TS Rafael, gentle to moderate NW to N to SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are evident across the southwestern, central and eastern basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail at the northwestern basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rafael is near 16.3N 77.2W at 10 PM EST, and is moving north-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Rafael will move to 17.6N 78.3W Tue morning, 19.4N 79.9W Tue evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 21.4N 81.6W Wed morning, 23.3N 83.1W Wed evening, 24.6N 84.3W Thu morning, and 25.4N 85.3W Thu evening. Rafael will change little in intensity as it moves northward away from the region Fri. Moderate winds and seas can be expected elsewhere into mid week. Large NE to E swell may enter the Atlantic passages of the northeastern Caribbean Thu into Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding the significant swell across the western Atlantic. A surface trough stretches westward from near 22N63W to the southeast Bahamas to a 1009 mb low near 22N77W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found near and south of these features to near 20N. A cold front stretches north of the trough from 31N43W to 27N65W then it transitions to a dissipating cold front to near 30N76W which is also contributing to the widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas. Another surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection from 23N49W westward to 19N57W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Besides the strong to near-gale winds mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong ENE to E winds with 7 to 10 ft seas are seen north of 22N between 59W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Farther east, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present north of 20N between 35W and 59W. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Rafael is near 16.3N 77.2W at 10 PM EST, and is moving north-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Rafael will move to 17.6N 78.3W Tue morning, 19.4N 79.9W Tue evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 21.4N 81.6W Wed morning, 23.3N 83.1W Wed evening, 24.6N 84.3W Thu morning, and 25.4N 85.3W Thu evening. Rafael will change little in intensity as it moves to near 26.6N 87.6W late Fri. Otherwise, a trough extends from Cuba to 26N63W. The pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure north of the region is supporting strong to near gale- force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas across the waters north of the trough. The trough will shift westward through Tue, as building high pressure north of the area follows a cold front moving across the western Atlantic. The front will become stationary and weaken along 22N by Wed. $$ KRV