000 AXNT20 KNHC 050930 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Nov 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rafael: Tropical Storm Rafael is centered near 17.0N 78.0W at 05/0900 UTC or 90 nm SW of Kingston Jamaica, moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas are peaking 19 ft east of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 14N to 19N between 74W and 79W. Rafael is forecast to continue on a NW track over the next couple of days. Rafael is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it passes near or over the Cayman Islands by tonight where damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves are expected. Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday, where a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves are also expected. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans, along with southern and western portions of Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain in Jamaica and Cuba. For the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information. Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell: Large easterly swell along with wind waves generated by strong to near- gale force ENE winds will is producing seas of 12 to 13 ft from 25N to 30N between 70W and 77W. Winds and seas are expected to start to decrease Tue evening. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 13N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 44W and 51W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean near 13N16W and extends to 10N18W, where it transitions to ITCZ and continues to 07N30W to 07N44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 22W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Tropical Storm Rafael. A surface ridge extends across the SE United States. Low pressure is over Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds over the NW Gulf, where seas are in the 7-10 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rafael is near 17.0N 78.0W at 4 AM EST, and is moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Rafael will move to 18.4N 79.2W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 20.3N 80.8W Wed morning, 22.2N 82.5W Wed afternoon, 23.9N 84.0W Thu morning, 25.0N 85.3W Thu afternoon, and 25.8N 86.5W Fri morning. Rafael will weaken to a tropical storm near 26.8N 89.0W early Sat. Otherwise, a broad high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic into the southeastern U.S. The pressure gradient between this ridge and troughs over Mexico and the northwest Caribbean are supporting fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Tropical Storm Rafael. Outside of marine conditions associated to Rafael, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rafael is near 17.0N 78.0W at 4 AM EST, and is moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Rafael will move to 18.4N 79.2W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 20.3N 80.8W Wed morning, 22.2N 82.5W Wed afternoon, then move N of the area Wed night. Marine conditions will improve over the NW Caribbean the second half of the week. Moderate winds and seas can be expected elsewhere into mid week. Large NE to E swell may enter the Atlantic passages of the northeastern Caribbean Thu into Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding the significant swell across the western Atlantic. A trough extends from Cuba to 26N70W. The pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure north of the region is supporting strong to near gale- force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas across the waters north of the trough. A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N38W to 26N57W. Moderate to fresh winds are N of the front, with fresh to locally strong winds N of 30N within 120 nm east of the front. Seas over these waters are in the 7-10 ft range. A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 33N17W with associated ridge extending SW to near 24N42W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the ridge. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ between 25W and 44W. Seas over these waters are in the 6-8 ft range in the mix of northerly swell and E wind waves. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Rafael is near 17.0N 78.0W at 4 AM EST, and is moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Rafael will move to 18.4N 79.2W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 20.3N 80.8W Wed morning, 22.2N 82.5W Wed afternoon, 23.9N 84.0W Thu morning, 25.0N 85.3W Thu afternoon, and 25.8N 86.5W Fri morning. Rafael will weaken to a tropical storm near 26.8N 89.0W early Sat. Strong to near gale- force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas across the waters north of the trough mentioned above. The trough will shift westward today, as building high pressure north of the area follows a cold front moving across the western Atlantic. This will result in a decrease in winds and seas starting tonight. The front will become stationary and weaken along 22N by Wed. $$ AL