000 AXNT20 KNHC 051801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Nov 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rafael: Tropical Storm Rafael is centered near 18.6N 79.1W at 05/1800 UTC or 60 nm SW of Montego Bay Jamaica, moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas are peaking at 20 ft east of the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 21N between 73W and 81W. A generally northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near western Jamaica through early this afternoon, and be near or over the Cayman Islands this evening and tonight, and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday. Steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba. Damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves are expected in these areas. Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. For the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information. Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell: Large easterly swell along with wind waves generated by strong to near-gale force ENE winds is producing seas of 12 to 13 ft from 25N to 29N between 71W and 78W. Winds and seas are expected to decrease this evening. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 13N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 46W and 52W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean near 12N16W and extends to 11N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues west-southwestward to 07N44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 21W and 46W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Tropical Storm Rafael. A surface ridge extends across the SE United States. A cold front is pushing into the western Gulf from the northwest, and low pressure is over eastern Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed ahead of the front. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting strong to near- gale-force N winds over the NW Gulf, where seas are in the 6-9 ft range. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh E winds across the remainder of the Gulf, along with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will continue over the eastern half of the basin through Wed ahead of approaching Tropical Storm Rafael, currently in the NW Caribbean. Strong E winds and rough seas in the Straits of Florida will worsen as the tropical cyclone approches, reaching near gale force by Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rafael is near 17.8N 78.6W at 10 AM EST, and is moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Rafael will strengthen to a hurricane near 19.4N 79.9W this evening, move to 21.3N 81.5W Wed morning, 23.2N 83.1W Wed evening, 24.4N 84.3W Thu morning, 25.1N 85.7W Thu evening, and 25.6N 87.1W Fri morning. Rafael will weaken to a tropical storm near 26.8N 89.3W early Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Tropical Storm Rafael. Outside of marine conditions associated to Rafael, gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rafael is near 17.8N 78.6W at 10 AM EST, and is moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Rafael will strengthen to a hurricane near 19.4N 79.9W this evening, move to 21.3N 81.5W Wed morning, then move N of the area near 23.2N 83.1W Wed evening. Marine conditions will improve over the NW Caribbean Wed night into early Thu. Gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere the entire forecast period, except for fresh NE winds over adjacent waters of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and the Windward Passage through early Fri. Otherwise, large NE to E swell may enter the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean Thu into Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding the significant swell across the western Atlantic. A trough extends from 20N68W to the northern coast of Cuba. The pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure north of the region is supporting strong to near gale- force easterly winds and rough seas across the waters north and northeast of the trough. A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N38W and extends to 24N65W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are N of the front, with fresh to locally strong winds N of 30N and within 250 nm east of the front. Seas over these waters are in the 8-11 ft range. A second cold front enters the waters near 31N42W and extends southwestward to 29N53W. A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 33N17W with associated ridge extending SW. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are in the vicinity of the ridge. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ between 28W and 45W. Seas over these waters are in the 6-8 ft range in the mix of northerly swell and E wind waves. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, strong pressure gradient between a broad ridge over the central and western subtropical Atlantic waters and Tropical Storm Rafael in the NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas across the Florida adjacent waters and offshore waters N and E of the Bahamas through early Thu. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Fri. $$ Adams