000 AXNT20 KNHC 052345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Nov 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rafael: Tropical Storm Rafael is centered near 19.1N 79.6W at 05/2100 UTC or 90 nm E of Grand Cayman, moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Seas are peaking around 21 ft near the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 13N to 22N between 74W and 83W. Rafael is expected to have a general northwestward motion over the next two to three days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near or over the Cayman Islands this evening and tonight, be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night. Steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next 24 hour or so, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane during the next several hours as it passes near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba. Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please consult products from your local weather office. For the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 13N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 46W and 52W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean near 12N16W and extends to 11N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues west-southwestward to 08N44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 14W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Tropical Storm Rafael. A surface ridge extends across the SE United States. A cold front is pushing into the western Gulf from the northwest. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed ahead of the front. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh N winds over the W Gulf, where seas are in the 4-5 ft range. Earlier satellite scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh E winds across the remainder of the Gulf, along with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will continue over the eastern half of the basin through Wed ahead of Tropical Storm Rafael, currently in the NW Caribbean. Strong E winds and rough seas in the Straits of Florida will worsen as the tropical cyclone approaches, reaching near gale force by Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rafael is near 19.1N 79.6W at 4 PM EST, and is moving northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Rafael will strengthen to a hurricane near 20.5N 80.7W Wed morning, move to the SE Gulf near 22.5N 82.4W Wed afternoon, 24.1N 83.8W Thu morning, 25.0N 85.2W Thu afternoon, 25.4N 86.5W Fri morning, and 25.8N 87.8W Fri afternoon. Rafael will weaken to a tropical storm over the north-central Gulf near 27.1N 90.1W Sat afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Tropical Storm Rafael. Outside of marine conditions associated to Rafael, gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rafael is near 19.1N 79.6W at 4 PM EST, and is moving northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Rafael will strengthen to a hurricane near 20.5N 80.7W Wed morning, then move N of the area near 22.5N 82.4W Wed afternoon. Marine conditions will improve over the NW Caribbean Wed night into early Thu. Gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere the entire forecast period, except for fresh NE winds over adjacent waters of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and the Windward Passage through early Fri. Otherwise, large NE to E swell is forecast to enter the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean Thu into Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough extends from 20N68W to the northern coast of Cuba. The pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure north of the region is supporting strong to near gale- force easterly winds especially across the Bahamas and offshore of Florida. Rough seas are noted across the waters north and northeast of the trough, with seas as high as 13 ft. A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N34W and extends to 24N70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are N of the front, with fresh to strong winds N of 30N and within 250 nm east of the front. Seas over these waters are in the 8-11 ft range. A second cold front enters the waters near 31N39W and extends southwestward to 28N56W. A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 37N14W with associated ridge extending SW. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are in the vicinity of the ridge. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ between 28W and 45W. Seas over these waters are in the 6-8 ft range in the mix of northerly swell and E wind waves. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, strong pressure gradient between a broad ridge over the central and western subtropical Atlantic waters and Tropical Storm Rafael in the NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas across the Florida adjacent waters and offshore waters N and E of the Bahamas through early Thu. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Fri. $$ AReinhart