000 AXNT20 KNHC 060432 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Nov 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0431 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rafael: Recently upgraded Hurricane Rafael is centered near 19.7N 80.4W at 06/0300 UTC or 50 nm ENE of Grand Cayman, moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Seas are peaking around 27 ft near the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 18N to 21N between 72W and 82W. Rafael is expected to have a general northwestward motion over the next day or so, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to pass through the Cayman Islands tonight, be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 12-18 hours, and Rafael is now forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane before it makes landfall in Cuba on Wednesday. Rafael could briefly weaken over Cuba but is then expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. For the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 14N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 48W and 52W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean near 12N17W and extends to 07N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues west-southwestward to 09N41W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 20W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about recently upgraded Hurricane Rafael. A surface ridge extends across the SE United States. A stationary front is analyzed over the western Gulf from the northwest. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed ahead of the front, north of 23N between 92W and 94W. A surface trough is also producing scattered moderate convection from 23N to 28N between 83W and 86W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh N winds over the W Gulf, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf, along with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will continue over the eastern half of the basin through Wed ahead of Hurricane Rafael, currently in the NW Caribbean. Strong E winds and rough seas in the Straits of Florida will worsen as the tropical cyclone approaches, reaching near gale force by Wed morning. Hurricane Rafael is near 19.7N 80.4W at 10 PM EST, and is moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Rafael will move to 21.2N 81.5W Wed morning, 23.0N 83.2W Wed evening, 24.3N 84.6W Thu morning, 24.8N 85.9W Thu evening, 25.1N 87.4W Fri morning, and 25.4N 89.0W Fri evening. Rafael will weaken to a tropical storm near 26.7N 91.2W late Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about recently upgraded Hurricane Rafael. Outside of marine conditions associated to Rafael, gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Rafael is near 19.7N 80.4W at 10 PM EST, and is moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Rafael will move to 21.2N 81.5W Wed morning, and 23.0N 83.2W Wed evening before moving N of the area overnight Wed. Marine conditions will start to improve over the NW Caribbean Wed night into early Thu. Gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere, except for fresh NE winds over adjacent waters of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and the Windward Passage through early Fri. Otherwise, large NE to E swell is forecast to enter the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean Thu into Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The pressure gradient between Rafael and strong high pressure north of the region is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds especially across the Bahamas and offshore of Florida. Rough seas are noted across the waters north of 24N, with seas as high as 12 ft. A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N30W and extends to 21N58W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are N of the front, with fresh to strong winds from 21N to 26N between 50W and 63W. Seas over these waters are in the 8-11 ft range. A pre- frontal trough is producing scattered moderate convection particularly from 19N to 23N between 50W and 60W. A 1026 mb high pressure north of the area with associated ridge extending SW. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are in the vicinity of the ridge. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ between the west coast of Africa and 50W. Seas over these waters are in the 6-9 ft range in the mix of northerly swell and E wind waves. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the pressure gradient between a broad ridge over the central and western subtropical Atlantic waters and Hurricane Rafael in the NW Caribbean will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas across the Florida adjacent waters and offshore waters N and E of the Bahamas through early Thu. Winds and seas will gradually diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Fri. $$ KRV