000 AXNT20 KNHC 060926 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Nov 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rafael: Hurricane Rafael is centered near 20.6N 81.3W at 06/0900 UTC or 100 nm SE of the isle of Youth, moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Seas are peaking around 25 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 19N to 22N between 77W and 83W. Rafael is expected to have a general northwestward motion over the next day or so, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. Rafael is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane intensity before reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today, where damaging hurricane- force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive waves are also expected. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba. Please consult products from your local weather office. For the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W/53W from 14N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 47W and 52W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean near 12N17W and extends to 08N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N41W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 26W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Hurricane Rafael. A 1028 mb high is centered near 36N63W, while a surface trough extends from 28N86W to 22N85W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh winds E of the trough. A stationary front extends over the western Gulf from the Texas/louisiana border to near Veracruz, Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are between the trough and stationary front. Gentle to locally moderate winds are west of the stationary front. Seas over the Gulf waters are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the eastern half of the basin today ahead of Hurricane Rafael, currently in the NW Caribbean. Hurricane Rafael is near 20.6N 81.3W at 4 AM EST, and is moving northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Rafael will move to 22.0N 82.6W this afternoon, 23.6N 84.1W Thu morning, 24.3N 85.8W Thu afternoon, 24.6N 87.2W Fri morning, 24.9N 88.5W Fri afternoon, and 25.2N 89.8W Sat morning. Rafael will weaken to a tropical storm near 26.3N 91.5W early Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Hurricane Rafael. Outside of marine conditions associated to Rafael, gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Rafael is near 20.6N 81.3W at 4 AM EST, and is moving northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Rafael will move to 22.0N 82.6W this afternoon, then N of the area tonight. Marine conditions will start to improve over the NW Caribbean tonight into early Thu as Rafael moves further from the area. Gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere, except for fresh NE winds over adjacent waters of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and the Windward Passage through early Fri. Otherwise, large NE to E swell is forecast to enter the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean Thu into Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The pressure gradient between Hurricane Rafael and strong high pressure north of the region is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds especially across the Bahamas and offshore of Florida. Rough seas are noted across the waters north of the Bahamas, with seas as high as 12 ft. A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N27W and extends to 20N57W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are N of the front, with fresh to strong winds from 20N to 25N between 50W and 65W. Seas over these waters are in the 8-11 ft range. A surface ridge enters the waters near 31N17W and extends to 19N33W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are in the vicinity of the ridge. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, N of the ITCZ. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas are expected across the Florida adjacent waters and offshore waters N and E of the Bahamas through early Thu. Winds and seas will gradually diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Fri. $$ AL