000 AXNT20 KNHC 061805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Nov 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rafael: Hurricane Rafael is centered near 22.0N 82.3W at 06/1800 UTC or 30 nm NE of the isle of Youth, moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). An automated weather station at Cayo Largo Del Sur, Cuba, reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to 83 mph (134 km/h) within the past few hours. Seas are peaking around 29 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 14N to 23N between 77W and 84W. A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to make landfall in western Cuba later today and then move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Additional strengthening is expected, and Rafael is forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall in Cuba later today, where damaging hurricane-force winds, life- threatening storm surge, and destructive waves are also expected. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba, but is then expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba. Please consult products from your local weather office. For the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 14N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed from 05N to 12N between 45W and 54W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues south-southwestward to near 08N16W where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues from 08N16W southwestward to 05N23W, and then west-northwestward to 10N43W. Scattered moderate convection is observed across a large area from the Equator to 12N between 15W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Hurricane Rafael. A 1028 mb high is centered near 34N61W, while a surface trough extends across the central Gulf from 30N87W to 20N85W in the Yucatan Channel. The pressure gradient between these features and Hurricane Rafael to the southeast is supporting fresh to locally strong E winds across the SE Gulf and moderate to fresh E winds across the remainder of the Gulf east of the trough. A stationary front extends over the western Gulf from southwestern Louisiana to just north of Veracruz, Mexico, and is supporting gentle to moderate winds across much of the central and western Gulf. Seas over much of the Gulf waters are in the 4-6 ft range, with seas of 2-4 ft in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the eastern half of the basin today ahead of Hurricane Rafael. Rafael is forecast to move inland western Cuba this afternoon and into the southeastern Gulf tonight, then weaken slightly as it reaches near 23.9N 84.8W early Thu and to near 24.3N 86.4W early Thu evening. Rafael will then begin to gradually weaken as it reaches near 24.4N 88.0W early Fri with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 24.6N 89.3W early Fri evening and to near 24.8N 90.7W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Rafael is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near 25.7N 92.1W by early Sun with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Hurricane Rafael. An area of convergent surface winds is noted in the central and eastern Caribbean, and is leading to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms along localized areas of fresh to strong NE winds, mostly associated with convection in the area. Aside from this area and marine conditions driven by Hurricane Rafael, gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas prevail across much of the basin. For the forecast, Hurricane Rafael will move inland over western Cuba this afternoon and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Marine conditions will start to improve over the NW Caribbean tonight into early Thu as Rafael moves further from the area. Gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere, except for fresh NE winds over adjacent waters of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and the Windward Passage through early Fri. Otherwise, large NE to E swell is forecast to enter the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean Thu into Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The pressure gradient between Hurricane Rafael and strong high pressure north of the region is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds especially across the Bahamas and the Florida Straits. Rough seas are noted across the waters north of the Bahamas, with seas as high as 12 ft. A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N26W and extends to 20N56W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are N of the front, with recent scatterometer data showing fresh to strong winds from 20N to 25N between 45W and 65W. Seas over these waters are in the 8-12 ft range. A surface ridge enters the waters near 31N17W and extends to 18N39W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are in the vicinity of the ridge. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh E to NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft between the ITCZ and 16N. For the forecast W of 55W, the pressure gradient between a broad ridge over the central and western subtropical Atlantic waters and Hurricane Rafael in the northwestern Caribbean will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas across the Florida adjacent waters and offshore waters N and E of the Bahamas through early Thu. Winds and seas will gradually diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Fri. $$ Adams