000 AXNT20 KNHC 062319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Nov 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rafael: Hurricane Rafael is centered near 22.6N 82.7W at 06/2100 UTC or 40 nm SSW of Havana Cuba, moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, making Rafael a Category 3 hurricane. Seas are peaking around 12 to 13 ft in the Straits of Florida due to Rafael over land. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 18N to 26N between 77W and 84W. Rafael is expected to have a general northwestward motion tonight. A slower west- northwestward to westward motion is expected Friday through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to cross Cuba this evening, and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this evening or tonight. Rafael is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Little change in strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba. Some weakening is forecast while Rafael crosses western Cuba, but the storm is forecast to remain a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected. Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. For the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 14N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed from 07N to 11N between 53W and 56W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues south-southwestward to near 08N17W where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues from 08N17W southwestward to 05N25W, and then west-northwestward to 10N37W. Scattered moderate convection is observed across a large area from the Equator to 12N between 13W and 39W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Hurricane Rafael. A 1028 mb high is centered near 34N62W, while a surface trough extends across the central Gulf from 30N87W to 20N85W in the Yucatan Channel. The pressure gradient between these features and Hurricane Rafael to the southeast is supporting fresh to strong E winds across the SE Gulf and moderate to fresh E winds across the remainder of the Gulf east of the trough. A stationary front extends over the western Gulf from southwestern Louisiana to just north of Veracruz, Mexico, and is supporting gentle to moderate winds across much of the central and western Gulf. Seas over much of the Gulf waters are in the 4-6 ft range, with seas of 2-4 ft in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the eastern half of the basin through early this evening ahead of Hurricane Rafael, currently in the northwestern Caribbean near 22.6N 82.7W at 4 PM EST and moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Rafael will move inland western Cuba by early this evening and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Rafael will weaken as it reaches near 23.6N 83.9W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, move to near 24.1N 85.6W early Thu afternoon, and continue to maintain intensity as it moves to near 24.2N 87.4W late Thu night, and begin to weaken as it reaches to near 24.2N 89.1W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 24.3N 90.4W late Fri night with maximum sustained 75 kt gusts 90 kt and to near 24.5N 91.1W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Rafael is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near 24.6N 92.0W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Swell generated by Rafael is expected to spread over most of the basin from E to W late this week and into the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Hurricane Rafael. An area of convergent surface winds is noted in the central and eastern Caribbean where a trough is analyzed from Puerto Rico southward to northern Venezuela. This is leading to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms along localized areas of moderate to fresh winds. Aside from this area and marine conditions driven by Hurricane Rafael, gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas prevail across much of the basin. For the forecast, Hurricane Rafael is near 22.6N 82.7W, or about 75 nm south of Havana, Cuba at 4 PM EST moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Rafael will move inland western Cuba by early this evening and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Marine conditions will start to improve over the northwestern Caribbean tonight into early afternoon on Thu as Rafael pulls away from the area. Gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere, except for fresh NE winds over adjacent waters of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and the Windward Passage through early Fri. Otherwise, large NE to E swell is forecast to enter the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean Thu into Fri morning, then subsiding afterward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The pressure gradient between Hurricane Rafael and strong high pressure north of the region is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds especially across the Bahamas and the Florida Straits. Rough seas are noted across the waters north of the Bahamas, with seas as high as 12 ft. A cold front enters the discussion waters near 30N25W and extends to 22N43W, with the tail-end stationary from 22N43W to 20N56W. Fresh to strong NE winds are N of the front. Seas over these waters are in the 10-14 ft range near 21N61W. A surface ridge enters the waters near 31N17W and extends to 18N39W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are in the vicinity of the ridge. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh E to NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft between the ITCZ and 16N. For the forecast W of 55W, the pressure gradient between a broad ridge over the central and western subtropical Atlantic waters and Hurricane Rafael in the northwestern Caribbean will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas across the Florida adjacent waters and offshore waters N and E of the Bahamas through early Thu. Winds and seas will gradually diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Fri. A trough of low pressure is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles east- northeast of the Leeward Islands. This system is expected to move generally westward during the next few days, and an area of low pressure could form near the northern Leeward Islands tonight or Thursday. Afterward, some gradual development of this system is possible toward the end of the week and into the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and approaches the southeastern Bahamas. $$ AReinhart