000 AXNT20 KNHC 071753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Nov 07 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rafael: Hurricane Rafael is centered near 24.5N 85.2W at 07/1500 UTC, or 185 nm west of Key West, Florida moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has diminished to 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Seas are peaking around 30 ft near the center. Satellite imagery shows that an eye feature is faintly. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm in the N semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 90 nm of the center, except 60 nm in the E and W quadrants. Cirrus upper-level outflow is noted mostly in the W semicircle of Rafael. Rafael is forecast to turn toward the west later today. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. For the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 59W south of 15N. It is moving westward at about 10-15 kt. An area of scattered moderate to strong convection is east of the wave from 09N to 12N between 53W and 57W. A recent ASCAT pass detected a subtle NE to SE wind shift across the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave within 60 nm of 12N58W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough briefly enters the Atlantic reaching from 11N14W to 09N16W. The ITCZ axis extends from 09N16W to 05N20W to 06N27W. Scattered moderate convection is near the western part of the ITCZ. Otherwise, no deep convection is noted. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Rafael. Aside from conditions associated with Rafael, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-6 ft are over the NE Gulf N of 27N, while strong to near gale E winds are along the periphery of Rafael crossing 26N and extending to 27N. Seas with these winds are 10- 17 ft. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft are over the western Gulf. For the forecast, Hurricane Rafael is near 24.5N 85.2W at 10 AM EST, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Rafael will move to 24.6N 86.7W this evening, 24.6N 88.4W Fri morning, 24.6N 89.8W Fri evening, 24.7N 91.0W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 24.7N 91.9W Sat evening, and 24.5N 92.6W Sun morning. Rafael will change little in intensity as it moves to the western-central Gulf waters near 24.0N 93.2W early Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh SE winds in the wake of Rafael are over the northwestern Caribbean N of 18N between 77W-84W along with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle southwest to west are over the western Caribbean W of 84W with seas of 3-4 ft. Generally gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere across the basin, except for higher winds at fresh to strong speeds, NE in direction, that are south of the Dominican Republic to near 16N as well as in the Mona Passage. Seas with these winds are 6-8 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 7-10 ft in the Mona Passage due to a long-period NE swell. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail. A large upper-level low is seen in water vapor imagery over the eastern part of the basin S of Puerto Rico near 15N67W, moving westward. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection, with frequent lightning is pivoting around the low in its eastern semicircle. This activity is shifting toward Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. Flooding may result from this activity as the unsettled weather is expected for the next several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving westward over the eastern part of the Dominican Republic. To the E of the upper- level low, a trough extends along 63W N of 14N. A recent ASCAT pass highlighted a NE to SE wind shift of light to gentle speeds across the trough axis. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the southern part of the trough. For the forecast, Hurricane Rafael is over the SE Gulf near 24.5N 85.2W at 10 AM EST, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Marine conditions will improve over the northwestern Caribbean by this evening as Rafael moves further from the area. Gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere, except for fresh to strong NE winds over adjacent waters of the Dominican Republic and in the Windward Passage through Fri morning. Otherwise, large NE to E swell is forecast to enter the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean into Fri morning and subside afterward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The pressure gradient between a broad ridge over the central and western subtropical Atlantic waters and Hurricane Rafael in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico continues to support fresh to strong winds E of central and southern Florida, where seas are 6-8 ft in E swell. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough that is along 63W and that extends S of 25N into the eastern Caribbean is supporting fresh to near gale NE to E to SE winds as seen in the latest ASCAT pass over that part of the ocean. These winds also cover the Atlantic waters roughly from 18N to 27N between 45W-70W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-12 ft range. A large area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection exists from 15N to 23N between 56W-64W. This area of convection is under upper-level diffluent flow that is helping to sustain it. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are quickly moving westward in advance of the aforementioned large area of convection. This activity is seen from north of Puerto Rico to 22N and between 64W-69W. A stationary frontal boundary is analyzed from near 31N21W to weak low pressure of 1015 mb near 26.5N27W. It continues to 22N38W, where it begins to weaken to 22N50W. A frontal trough extends from that point westward to near 21N60W. An area of widespread moderate rain with embedded numerous showers is quickly lifting NNE over the NE waters N of 27N and E of 29W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along, and within 60 nm N of the trough between 52W-56W. Aside from the areas discussed above, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 7-10 ft in long-period N swell are N of the front. Light to gentle winds along with seas of 4-7 ft are to the SE of the front E of 45W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft continue. For the forecast W of 55W, the pressure gradient between a broad ridge over the central and western subtropical Atlantic waters and a surface trough just E of Puerto Rico will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas across the offshore waters E of the central and southern Bahamas to 55W through Fri evening. The trough is also producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the SE offshore waters NE of Puerto Rico. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas through Sat. $$ Aguirre