000 AXNT20 KNHC 080616 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Nov 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rafael is centered near 24.7N 87.5W at 08/0600 UTC or 240 nm NNE of Progreso Mexico, and moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas range from 30 to 33 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted up to 100 nm in the NW semicircle and 50 nm in the SW semicircle of Rafael. A general W to WNW motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected for Rafael through the weekend. This will bring Rafael across the central Gulf this weekend. Some minor fluctuations on intensity are possible through Friday but a weakening trend should begin on Friday night. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: A low level trough south of Hurricane Rafael in the west-central Caribbean Sea is propagating westward toward Nicaragua and Costa Rica tonight. Scattered moderate convection is seen in its vicinity. As it moves through the region, it will introduce a low pressure system off the west coast of Nicaragua on Friday. This system is anticipated to persist in this general area through early next week, which will draw moisture from the Pacific Ocean to enhance extreme rainfall over Costa Rica. In addition, a Central American Gyre (CAG) is forecast to start developing farther south on Fri afternoon. Abundance convergent low-level moist flow along with upper-level divergence, heavy rainfall can occur across southern Panama for the next several days. Please refer to your local weather agency for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave is near 61W from the southern Leeward Islands southward through eastern Venezuela. It is moving west around 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are seen just west of the Lesser Antilles. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the northwest Guinea coast, then reaches southwestward to 06N17W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough from 02N to 07N between the Sierra Leone-Liberia coast and 16W. An ITCZ continues westward from 06N17W to 03N36W, then turns northwestward to 12N56W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 150 nm north and 100 nm south of the ITCZ west of 46W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate to isolated strong convection at the southwestern Caribbean Sea. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section on Hurricane Rafael. Convergent southeasterly winds feeding into Hurricane Rafael are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the east-central and southeastern Gulf, including waters near Key West, Florida. Farther west, surface ridging induced by subsidence of Rafael dominates the western Gulf. Outside the direct impact of Rafael, fresh to strong with locally near-gale E to SE winds and seas of 8 to 14 ft are present at the east-central and southeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas are noted at the northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong N to NW winds and seas at 10 to 18 ft exist at the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate NNE to E winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the western Gulf. For the forecast, Rafael will move to 24.7N 88.4W Fri morning, 24.8N 89.9W Fri evening and 25.1N 91.1W Sat morning, before weakening to a tropical storm near 25.2N 91.9W Sat evening. Afterward, it will reach 25.3N 92.4W Sun morning, and 24.9N 92.7W Sun evening. Rafael will change little in intensity as it moves to 23.7N 93.1W late Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about potential heavy rainfall across Costa Rica and Panama. An upper-level trough reaches southward from a pronounced upper low just south of Hispaniola to northwestern Colombia. These features are generating widely scattered moderate convection across the central and eastern basin. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident south of Hispaniola and near the Windward Passage. Otherwise, gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds and locally rough seas will continue overnight across the Windward Passage and downwind of Hispaniola before diminishing Fri morning. Otherwise, gentle to moderate E trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through earl next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front curves southwestward from near Madeira across 31N16W and a 1015 mb low near 27N26W to 24N29W. A shear line continues westward from 24N29W to north of Puerto Rico at 21N66W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 90 nm north of the low and stationary front. Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms are present up to 70 nm along either side of the shear line between 39W and 60W. Aided by divergent southerly flow aloft, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring up to 90 nm north and 50 nm south of the shear line west of 60W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to ENE winds with 8 to 10 ft seas are seen from 21N to 26N between 45W and the Bahamas. For north of 26N between 35W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells exist. For the Tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft in mixed moderate swells dominate. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between ridging centered off the coast of the southeastern United States and a trough located near and south of Puerto Rico will continue to support widespread fresh to locally strong E to NE winds north of the Greater Antilles through Fri morning. Rough to locally very rough seas in the aforementioned area will continue into Fri before slowly subsiding by Fri night. Some gradual development of this trough is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. The shear line north and northeast of the Virgin Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will progress south of 31N on Sat, leading to widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas in N swell north of the Greater Antilles through this weekend. The N swell will continue to progress southeastward early next week. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E trades and moderate to rough seas will occur east of the Windward Islands through the forecast period. $$ Chan