000 AXNT20 KNHC 082314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Nov 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...HURRICANE RAFAEL... Hurricane Rafael is centered near 24.6N 89.7W at 08/2100 UTC or 200 nm N of Progreso Mexico, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Satellite images suggest that Rafael is gradually losing strength and organization. Numerous moderate to strong convection is mainly occurring N of the center from 24.5N to 27.5N between 88W and 91W. On the forecast track, a slow west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight. After that, Rafael is likely to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days. Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: Persistent SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will bring rich, deep-layer moisture across southern Central America. This combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the developing of a Central America Gyre (CAG) will support the potential for heavy rainfall across southern Central America into early next week. This weather pattern may particularly impact Costa Rica and Panama. Rainfall amounts may be in excess of 20 inches (500 mm) in central Costa Rica through Tue. Rainfall amounts of 10 to 12 inches (250-300 mm) may impact Panama through Tue as well. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 62W/63W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A large cluster of moderate to strong convection is behind the wave axis affecting parts of the Lesser Antilles, and covering the waters from 11N to 15N between 57W and 61W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues westward to 04N16W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N16W to 04N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 02N to 07N between 30W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Hurricane Rafael, centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, is the main feature across the basin. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Outside the direct impact of Rafael, a weak high pressure of 1014 mb is analyzed along the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz while a ridge dominates the far NE Gulf. Mainly light and variable winds are noted per scatterometer data over the SW Gulf where seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are observed over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Seas 8 ft or greater, associated with Rafael, dominate roughly the waters from 22N to 30N between 85W and 94W. For the forecast, Rafael is expected to reach near 24.9N 90.6W tonight, near 25.2N 91.5W midday Sat as a tropical storm, near 25.6N 92.0W midday Sun, and near 23.8N 92.3W midday Mon as a 30 kt remnant low. Moderate NE to E winds will build across the basin Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about potential heavy rainfall across Costa Rica and Panama. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a trough of low pressure that extends from the central Caribbean Sea northeastward across Hispaniola and into the southwestern Atlantic. An outer band of Hurricane Rafael is still affecting the NW Caribbean and the province of Pinar del Rio in western Cuba. Light to gentle winds are noted across most of the basin, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the lee of Cuba, and near Cabo Beata in Dominican Republic per scatterometer data. Seas are generally 2 o 4 ft, except 3 to 5 t in the eastern Caribbean, and in the NW part of the area, mainly N of 20N W of 80W, including the Yucatan Channel. Higher seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen across the NE Caribbean Passages. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are just E of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, fresh NE winds and locally rough seas through the Windward Passage will diminishing tonight. Otherwise, gentle to moderate E trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. Moderate to large N swell across the Atlantic will move through the NE Caribbean Passages and across the Tropical Atlantic waters Mon through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... As previously mentioned, disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a trough of low pressure that extends from the central Caribbean Sea northeastward across Hispaniola and into the southwestern Atlantic to near 24N67W. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. Currently, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through 7 days. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for more details. The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds near the northern end of the trough axis, particularly from 21N to 24N between 65W and 71W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within these winds. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters S of 26N and W of 35W while seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen elsewhere. An area of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell dominate the waters N of 25N between 24W and 28W. A weak low of 1014 mb is located near 30N22W. A shearline extends SW from the low center to near 21N30W, then continues westward along 21N/22N to near 21N60W. Isolated to scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms are noted near the shearline between 40W and 60W. Fresh E winds and rough seas occurring north of a shear line. A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 31N33W. For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas occurring north of a shear line will diminish through Sat. A strong cold front will move south into the northern forecast waters on Sat, reaching 26N Sun morning, then will stall and begin to weaken along 20N Mon. Expect widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas in N swell in the wake of the front through this weekend. N swell will reach the NE Caribbean Mon morning and the Tropical Atlantic waters Mon afternoon and night. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E trades and moderate to rough seas will occur east of the Windward Islands through the forecast period. $$ GR