007 AXNT20 KNHC 090614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Nov 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rafael: Rafael weakens to a tropical storm and is centered near 24.8N 89.9W at 09/0300 UTC or 210 nm N of Progreso Mexico, and drifting WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas near the center range from 29 to 31 ft. Seas farther away from the center range from 15 to 28 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen near and up to 130 nm in a northern semi circle from the center. A slow WNW movement will continue through Saturday before a turn toward the SSW into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. A steady weakening trend is expected for the next few days. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to sustain life-threatening surf and rip current conditions around the Gulf coast. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Excessive Rainfall Risk in Costa Rica and Panama: Convergent southwesterly flow related to a monsoon trough continues to surge abundant moisture across Costa Rica and Panama. Aided by divergent flow aloft, sporadic convection is flaring up in both places. A board low pressure is expected to form along the monsoon trough on Saturday, which might strengthen into a Central American Gyre (CAG) early next week. This will enhance widespread deep convection, increasing the chance for very heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 (150 to 305 mm) inches are anticipated at both southwestern and southeastern Panama with locally higher amounts possible at southwestern Panama. For Costa Rica, 6 to 12 inches are expected across much of the nation with possible 12 to 20 inches (305 to 510 mm) at the southeastern coastal area. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your local weather agency for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W from south of the Virgin Islands southward to central Venezuela. It is moving west around 5 kt. Enhanced by diffluent flow aloft, numerous heavy showers and scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring near the over the Windward Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains mostly over the African continent. An ITCZ extends westward from just offshore of the Sierra Leone- Liberia border across 05N25W to 06N41W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and up to 230 nm south of the ITCZ west of 20W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering widely scattered moderate convection across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... PLease read the Special Features section about Tropical Storm Rafael. Outside the direct impact of Rafael, fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE to ESE winds with 10 to 14 ft seas are present at the north-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SE to WSW winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are noted at the south-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 8 ft seas exist across the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate N to ENE winds and seas at 5 to 10 ft in large easterly swell prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, Rafael is expected to move to 25.0N 90.7W Sat morning, 25.3N 91.5W Sat evening and then 25.6N 91.8W Sun morning. It will continue to 25.1N 91.8W Sun evening before weakening to a tropical depression near 24.4N 91.9W Mon morning, and then become a remnant low and move to 23.4N 92.2W Mon evening. Rafael will change little in intensity as it moves to 22.0N 92.7W late Tue. Looking ahead, moderate to locally fresh NE winds will build across the Gulf Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about potential heavy rainfall across Costa Rica and Panama. A pronounced upper-level low and related trough continue to produce widely scattered moderate convection over the central basin, including the Windward and Mona Passages. Convergent southeasterly winds are causing similar convection near the Yucatan Channel. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are present near the Lesser Antilles, on the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are seen at the southwestern basin. Mainly gentle easterly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds occurring through the passages of the Lesser Antilles will continue overnight before diminishing on Sat as a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean moves westward through the basin. Fresh NE winds occurring along a trough that extends through the Windward Passage will diminish through Sat. Moderate to fresh NE winds will develop across the northwestern Caribbean on Sat as a cold front moves southward through the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, moderate to large N swell across the Atlantic will move through the northeast Caribbean Passages and across the Tropical Atlantic waters Mon through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is producing widely scattered moderate convection northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. A shear line fragment reaches northwestward from 19N38W to 24N65W. Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 100 nm north of this feature. A 1016 mb low west of the Canary Islands near 29N23W is causing scattered moderate convection north of 28N between 19W and 22W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A surface ridge extending westward from a 1022 mb high south of the Azores near 31N33W to the Great Bahama Bank is supporting gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate N swell north of 20N between 30W and 65W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate E swell exist north of 27N between 65W and the Georgia-northern Florida coast. To the south, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are evident from 20N to 27N between 65W and the Bahamas. For the Tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in mixed large swells dominate. Gentle to moderate SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 30W. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and rough seas will persist near the Bahamas, as the surface trough move across the region through Sat. There is a low chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours and next 7 days. A strong cold front will move south of 31N on Sat, reaching 23N Sun morning, then will stall and begin to weaken along 20N Mon. Expect widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas in N swell behind this front through this weekend before diminishing early next week. N swell will reach the northeast Caribbean Mon morning and the Tropical Atlantic waters Mon afternoon and night. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E trades and moderate to rough seas will occur east of the Windward Islands through midweek next week. $$ Chan