000 AXNT20 KNHC 091805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL... The center of Tropical Storm Rafael, at 09/1500 UTC, is in the south central Gulf of Mexico, close to 25.2N 91.5W. Rafael is moving toward the WNW, or 290 degrees, 05 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are within: 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 20 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 70 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within: 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 210 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 23 feet. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: from 24N to 28N between 88W and 93W strong to near gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas in E to SE swell. Expect for the remainder of the area that is from 23N to 29N between 88W and 97W: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in E to SE swell. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in a north-to-south oriented 100 nm wide band, that 18N in the NW Caribbean Sea, to 27N in the Gulf of Mexico; and elsewhere from 22N northward from 95W eastward. A cold front is passing through the upper Texas Gulf coast near 30N94W, to 25N97W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 75 nm to the east of the cold front from 29N northward. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more information. Please, refer to the NHC Forecast/Advisory, and the Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details about Tropical Storm Rafael. ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the area that is to the west of the line that is from the Mona Passage to 12N70W in northern Venezuela. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 74W in Colombia and beyond Nicaragua. A surface trough is along 25N69W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Haiti, to 13N74W in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, are to the northwest of the surface trough. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in parts of the Caribbean Sea and in parts of the Atlantic Ocean, from 27N southward from 67W westward. A low pressure center is forecast to form along the monsoon trough today. It is possible that this feature may develop into the Central American Gyre (CAG) early next week. Heavy rainfall is possible under these conditions. Rainfall amounts of 6 inches to 12 inches (from 150 mm to 305 mm) are anticipated in the southern sections of Panama. Locally higher amounts are possible in SW Panama. Amounts ranging from 6 inches to 12 inches (from 150 mm to 305 mm) are possible in Costa Rica in general. The possible range of 12 inches to 20 inches (from 305 mm to 510 mm) is for the SE coastal area of Costa Rica. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk meteorologists. Please, refer to your local weather bureau for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from 18N southward, moving westward 05 knots to 10 knots. Moderate winds are within 240 nm to the north of the northernmost point of the tropical wave; and within 360 nm to the northeast of the northernmost point of the tropical wave. Moderate to fresh SE winds are between 60W and the tropical wave. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 930 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 270 nm to the west of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N12W, to 08N14W. The ITCZ continues from 08N14W, to 06N30W and 06N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 51W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Rafael. Mostly moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, are away from Tropical Storm Rafael. Tropical Storm Rafael is centered near 25.2N 91.5W at 1500 UTC, or 250 nm NNW of Progreso Mexico, moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days. Rafael will continue moving slowly toward the west-northwest through Sun morning, then move south-southwestward toward the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Rafael will move to near 25.4N 91.8W this evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 25.7N 92.1W Sun evening, become a remnant low near 23.6N 92.4W Mon evening, then continue to drift SW and weaken through Wed. Looking ahead, moderate to locally fresh NE winds will build across the basin Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, about the potential for heavy rainfall in Costa Rica and in Panama. Moderate seas are from 70W eastward. Slight seas are from 70W westward. Moderate to fresh SW winds are within 90 nm on either side of the line 13N74W 11N77W 09N79W near the eastern parts of the Caribbean Sea monsoon trough. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 09/1200 UTC, are: 0.75 in Guadeloupe; 0.24 in Curacao; 0.11 in Kingston in Jamaica; 0.08 in Montego Bay in Jamaica; 0.04 in Acapulco in Mexico; and 0.03 in Merida in Mexico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds occurring through the passages of the Lesser Antilles will diminishing later today as a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean moves westward through the basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds will develop across the NW Caribbean today as a cold front moves southward across the western Atlantic, and a trough across the Windward Passage shifts slowly W across the Bahamas. Moderate to large N swell across the Atlantic will move through the NE Caribbean Passages and across the Tropical Atlantic waters Mon through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1017 mb low pressure center is close to 29N22W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 13N to 27N from 54W eastward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 09/1200 UTC, are: 0.01 in Freeport in the Bahamas; and 0.01 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Strong surface anticyclonic wind flow is from the ITCZ to 15N between 34W and 52W. Fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere in the areas that are from the ITCZ to 20N between 30W and 58W. Fresh to moderate SE wind flow is from the ITCZ southward between 20W and 50W. Fresh NE winds are from 15N to 21N from 30W eastward. The Tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles: moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and seas from 6 feet to 8 feet in mixed large swells. Gentle to moderate SW winds and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet in mixed moderate swells cover the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 30W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas occurring along and to the west of a trough, located from the Windward Passage to 25N70W, will continue today, then strengthen tonight as the trough drifts W, and high pressure behind an approaching cold front builds into the area. The trough will move westward to west- northwestward across the Greater Antilles, Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days. A strong cold front will move southward into the northern forecast waters today, reaching 23N Sun morning, then will stall and begin to weaken along 20N Mon. Expect widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas in N swell north behind the front through this weekend before diminishing early next week. N swell will reach the NE Caribbean Mon morning and the Tropical Atlantic waters Mon afternoon and night. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E trades and moderate to rough seas will occur east of the Windward Islands through the forecast period. $$ mt/ss