000 AXNT20 KNHC 100614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Nov 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rafael: Tropical Storm Rafael is centered near 25.7N 91.7W at 10/0300 UTC or 285 nm NNW of Progreso Mexico, and drifting NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas near the center range from 14 to 16 ft while seas farther away are from 10 to 13 ft. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are seen up to 100 nm in a E semi circle from the center. Rafael will continue to drift NW across the central Gulf through Sunday, then turns southwest toward the SW Gulf early next week. Further weakening is anticipated and Rafael should become a remnant low by Monday. Despite being far away from land, Rafael has advected tropical moisture over southwestern and central Louisiana. Interaction with a frontal boundary nearby can cause deep convection capable of producing heavy rainfall, increasing the potential for flash flooding through Sunday. In addition, residual swell produced by Rafael will sustain life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coast of the west-central, northwestern and north- central Gulf through Monday. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Excessive Rainfall Risk in Costa Rica and Panama: Persistent SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the development of a Central America Gyre (CAG) will support the potential for heavy rainfall across southern Central America through midweek next week. The heaviest rainfall is forecast to impact southwestern Costa Rica and western Panama. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from near Puerto Rico southward into central Venezuela. It is moving westward around 5 kt. Being enhanced by divergent winds aloft, numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring across the northeastern and east-central Caribbean Sea, and near the ABC Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from northern Puerto Rico northward to 21N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, then runs southwestward to 09N19W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N19W across 06N35W to 07N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough but near the ITCZ from 03N to 07N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 40W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen up to 120 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 40W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... PLease read the Special Features section about Tropical Storm Rafael. Outside the direct impact of Rafael, fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft dominate the north-central and eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate S to SW to NNW winds with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, Rafael will move to 26.0N 91.8W Sun morning, 26.0N 91.5W Sun evening, then weaken to a remnant low near 25.3N 91.4W Mon morning. Afterward it will reach 24.0N 91.8W Mon evening, 22.8N 92.6W Tue morning, and 22.2N 93.7W Tue evening. Rafael will change little in intensity as it moves to 21.4N 95.2W late Wed. Looking ahead, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will build across the eastern half of the Gulf on Wed as a high pressure strengthens over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front looks to move through the western Gulf late next week, reinforcing fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas across most of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about potential heavy rainfall across Costa Rica and Panama. A surface trough curves northeastward from southwest of Jamaica trough a 1010 mb low pressure near Jamaica to beyond eastern Cuba. Isolated thunderstorms are found near the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present at the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Islands. Light to gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SE winds occurring through the passages of the Lesser Antilles will turn easterly on Sun as a tropical wave in the eastern basin moves westward through the central basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and across the northwestern basin will continue tonight, with fresh to strong winds reaching the Windward Passage and Mona Passage on Sun as a cold front moves southward through the central Atlantic. Large N swell associated with this front will move through the northeast Caribbean Passages and across the Tropical Atlantic waters Mon through Wed. Looking ahead, a cold front will move southeastward across Cuba on Wed and across the northwestern basin and Hispaniola Wed night through Thu, leading to moderate to fresh NE winds in the aforementioned areas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves westward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N56W to near Daytona Beach Florida, then continues northwestward as a stationary front across northern Florida. Patchy showers are seen near and up to 40 nm south of this boundary. A 1011 mb low pressure north of the Turks and Caicos Islands are generating scattered moderate convection from 23N to 26N between 66W and 72W. A surface trough meanders northeastward from 22N61W to 31N52W. Similar convection is seen near and up to 200 nm east of this feature. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong NW to NE winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft in large northerly swells are evident north of 24N between 50W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Farther east, moderate to fresh with locally strong S to SW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted north of 24N between 40W and 50W. To the east from 20N to 31N between 30W and 40W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist. To the south from 18N to 25N between 40W and the Bahamas/Greater Antilles, gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas at 5 to 6 ft is found. For the Tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 18N between 30W and the Windward Islands, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed large swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, strong NE winds and rough seas near the aforementioned 1011 mb low will persist through Sunday. A strong cold front will continue to progress southward through the central and western Atlantic this weekend, reaching 23N by Sun morning and 19N by Mon before stalling through Tue. Expect widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas in N swell north of the front through early Mon before diminishing through Tue. N swell will reach the northeast Caribbean Mon morning and the Tropical Atlantic waters Mon afternoon and night. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E trades and moderate to rough seas will occur east of the Windward Islands through midweek next week. Another cold front moving off the southeastern U.S. coast will lead to another round of fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas north of the Greater Antilles and west of 55W by the middle of next week. $$ Chan