000 AXNT20 KNHC 102314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Nov 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael is centered near 26.1N 91.3W at 10/2100 UTC or 300 nm NNW of Progreso Mexico, moving E at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The remnant low is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. This system is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday night. Swells will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Excessive Rainfall Risk in Costa Rica and Panama: Persistent SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the presence of a Central America Gyre (CAG) will increase the likelihood of heavy rainfall across southern Central America through at least mid-week. The most significant rainfall will affect southwestern Costa Rica and northwestern Panama. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave continues to move westward across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is near 67W extending from Puerto Rico southward into central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. The wave, combined with a diffluent pattern aloft, is helping to induce convection over Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is noted just ahead of the wave axis, affecting the waters N of 14N between 66W and 70W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over most of the Lesser Antilles and surrounding waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Liberia/Sierra Leone border and extends westward to 03N30W to 05N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to 07N between 25W and 51W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Rafael is no longer a tropical cyclone. It does not possess a well-defined center or organized convection. Scatterometer data show that the surface circulation has become poorly defined and very elongated in the north-south direction. Winds are 25 to 30 kt in association with the remnant low of Rafael. The last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system at 10/2100 UTC. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. The cyclonic circulation of the remnant low of Rafael covers roughly the waters N of 23N and W of 90W. Light to gentle NW to N winds are observed over the SW Gulf while winds are on increase across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf where satellite derived wind data indicate mainly fresh easterly winds. Outside Rafael, seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft across the offshore waters of west Florida, and in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the remnant low of Rafael is expected to drift eastward tonight, reaching near 25.8N 90.9W around midnight, then turn south and reach near 25.1N 90.7W midday Mon, reach near 23.2N 92W midday Tue, then drift SW and dissipate Tue night. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will build across the eastern half of the Gulf on Wed as a cold front moves through the western Atlantic and Florida. A second cold front will sink into the NW Gulf on Thu and reach the SE Gulf by Fri night ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about potential heavy rainfall across Costa Rica and Panama. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. Aside from the tropical wave, a broad area of low pressure dominates the SW Caribbean. Moderate southerly winds are on the E side of this system near the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds are noted, with the exception of moderate NE to E winds in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 3 to 4 ft near the coast of Colombia and in the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, seas are 1 to 3 ft. Higher winds and seas are in the convective activity S of Dominican Republic. For the forecast, active showers and thunderstorms will continue across the waters from 15N to Hispaniola through Tue, with and behind a tropical wave. Broad low pressure will persist across the W central Caribbean through at least mid-week. A cold front moving southward across the west and central Atlantic today will stall north of the Greater Antilles along about 19N-20N on Mon. Large N swell generated behind this front will reach the NE Caribbean Passages Mon afternoon and the Tropical Atlantic waters Mon evening and night. Looking ahead, another Atlantic cold front will move southeastward across Cuba on Wed, and across the NW basin and stalling across Hispaniola Wed night through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Shower activity has diminished near a trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas (invest area AL98). At 1800 UTC, a weak 1014 mb low is analyzed near 24N75W. Strong winds and rough seas are occurring to the north and west of this low. This system is located within an unfavorable environment, and tropical cyclone development is not expected. However, locally gusty winds are still possible as the system moves generally westward across the Bahamas through tonight. The northern extent of this trough is forecast to reach SE Florida tonight, increasing the likelihood of showers, with a small chance for thunderstorms tonight and Mon. A strong cold front extends from 30N43W to 22N55W to 25N73W, then continues as a stationary front across north-central Florida and the far NE Gulf of Mexico. A band of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, is related to the front E of 60W. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are observed in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are also ahead of the front, mainly N of 25N to about 40W. Scatterometer data indicate an area of strong to near gale force winds just N of Hispaniola to about 21N. E of the front, high pressure of 1031 mb located well NE of the Azores dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. An area of fresh to locally strong trade winds with moderate to rough seas is noted over the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 12N between 36W and 57W likely associated with the pressure gradient between the ridge to the N and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere E of 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the strong cold front will continue to moves southward across the central and western Atlantic, reaching along 22N this evening, and along 19N-20N by Mon before stalling and weakening through Tue. Expect widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas in N swell to follow the front through Mon morning before winds diminish Tue. N swell will reach the NE Caribbean Mon morning and the Tropical Atlantic waters Mon afternoon and night. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E trades and moderate to rough seas will prevail east of the Windward Islands through the forecast period. Another cold front moving off the southeastern U.S. coast Tue will reach from Bermuda to central Florida Tue night, and from 28N55W to the north coast of Hispaniola Wed night before stalling. $$ GR