000 AXNT20 KNHC 110609 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Nov 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall Risk in Costa Rica and Panama: Persistent SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the presence of a Central America Gyre (CAG) will increase the likelihood of heavy rainfall across southern Central America through at least mid- week. The most significant rainfall will affect the southwestern portions of Costa Rica and Panama. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from the Mona Passage southward into central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Enhanced by a diffluent pattern aloft, scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring at the northern-central Caribbean, including the eastern Dominican Republic, Mona Passage, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough is mostly over the African continent. An ITCZ curves westward from just offshore of northern Sierra Leone through 05N36W to 09N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found up to 150 nm north, and 80 nm south of the ITCZ west of 21W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is forming from near New Orleans northeastward to beyond the Florida Panhandle. Farther south, a surface trough reaches northeastward from the remnant low of Rafael near 27N91W to near the Florida Big Bend area. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong NNE to E to SSE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are present from 24N to 28N between 86W and 95W. Moderate ESE to SE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted at the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate N to NW to SW winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the remnant low of Rafael is expected to drift southward overnight and reach near 25.1N 90.7W midday Mon. Then, it will reach near 23.2N 92W midday Tue, before turning southwestward and dissipate Tue night. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will build across the eastern half of the Gulf on Wed as a cold front moves through the western Atlantic and Florida. A second cold front will sink into the northwestern Gulf on Thu and reach the southeastern Gulf by Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about potential heavy rainfall across Costa Rica and Panama. An upper-level trough is generating isolated thunderstorms across the northwestern basin. Convergent E to ESE winds are producing similar conditions near the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are present at the west-central, southwestern and south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, active showers and thunderstorms will continue in the central Caribbean, including Hispaniola, as a tropical wave moves across the region through Tue. A low pressure is forecast to meander between the southwestern basin and waters south of Jamaica through Friday, occasionally supporting moderate to fresh SW winds over Panama and Colombia offshore waters. A cold front moving southward across the central Atlantic with a tail end north of the Mona Passage near 23N67W will stall north of the Greater Antilles along about 19N-20N on Mon. Large N swell generated behind this front will reach the northeast Caribbean Passages Mon afternoon and the Tropical Atlantic waters Mon evening and night. Looking ahead, another Atlantic cold front will move southeastward across Cuba and the northwestern basin on Wed, stalling across Hispaniola Wed night through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from east of Azores across 31N42W, then continues northwestward as a stationary front to a 1013 mb low over the northwest Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near and up to 80 nm east and south of the cold front. Patchy showers are found near and up to 120 nm north of the stationary front and low pressure. A surface trough runs northeastward from east of the Leeward Islands to 23N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 80 nm along either side of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong N to E to SE winds and seas of 8 to 14 ft in large northerly swell are dominating the western Atlantic near and behind the aforementioned cold front. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SE to SW winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are evident east of the same cold front, north of 25N to near 32W. To the south, gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas at 5 to 6 ft are found from 20N to 25N between 30W and the cold front. For the Tropical Atlantic from 10N to 18N/20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 30W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will continue to affect the offshore waters south of 28N as a cold front moves southward across the western Atlantic through Mon night. Rough seas associated with this front will gradually subside by Tue evening. Another cold front moving off the southeastern U.S. coast Mon night will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Tue evening, and from 31N55W to northeastern Puerto Rico waters Wed evening and then move east of the area by Thu evening. Fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will follow this front and affect most of the area through Thu. A third front may enter the offshore waters of northeastern Florida Thu night into Fri, affecting the offshore waters north of 27N through the weekend. $$ Chan