000 AXNT20 KNHC 111007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Nov 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall Risk in Costa Rica and Panama: Persistent SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the presence of a Central America Gyre (CAG) will increase the likelihood of heavy rainfall across southern Central America through at least mid- week. The most significant rainfall will affect the southwestern portions of Costa Rica and Panama. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 69W, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Enhanced by a diffluent pattern aloft, scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring at the north-central Caribbean, including the Dominican Republic, Mona Passage, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough is mostly over the African continent. The ITCZ extends westward from just offshore of northern Sierra Leone through 04N35W to 10N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 12N between 21W and 57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad low pressure associated with the remnants of Rafael located over the north-central Gulf near 26N90W is providing moderate to fresh SE to S winds over a great portion of the eastern Gulf and N to NW winds of the same speed over the western basin. Locally strong winds are occuring within 150 nm W semicircle of the low where rough seas to 9 ft are also ongoing. For the forecast, the remnant low of Rafael centered near 26N90W is expected to reach near 25.1N 90.7W midday today, reach near 23.2N 92W midday Tue, then drift SW and dissipate Tue night. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will build across the eastern half of the Gulf early on Wed as a cold front moves through the western subtropical Atlantic waters and Florida. These winds will reach fresh to strong speeds late on Wed and prevail through Wed night. A second cold front will sink into the NE Gulf on Thu and reach the SE Gulf by Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about potential heavy rainfall across Costa Rica and Panama. A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean continues to generate heavy showers and tstms across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and its adjacent waters, and scattered showers elsewhere across the eastern and central basin. Gentle to moderate winds are over these regions with slight to moderate seas. Similar shower activity is ongoing over the SW Caribbean due to the E extension of the Pacific monsoon and over the far NW Caribbean due to a surfce trough just S of W Cuba. Winds are light to gentle and seas are slight over the western half of the basin, except for ocasional moderate to fresh SW winds across the offshores of Panama and Colombia. For the forecast, active showers and thunderstorms will continue in the central Caribbean, including Hispaniola, as a tropical wave moves across the region through Tue. A low pressure is forecast to meander between the SW Caribbean and S Jamaica adjacent waters the entire forecast period, ocassionally supporting moderate to fresh SW winds over Panama and Colombia offshore waters. A cold front moving southward across the central subtropical Atlantic with tail N of the Mona Passage near 22N67W will stall north of the Greater Antilles along about 19N-20N by this evening. Large N swell associated with this front will reach the NE Caribbean Passages today and the Tropical Atlantic waters by this evening. Looking ahead, another Atlantic cold front will move southeastward across Cuba and the NW basin Tue and Wed, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba Tue night, reaching fresh to strong speeds Wed night through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from 31N39W to 20N59W across 22N67W, then continues northwestward as a stationary front to a 1013 mb low over the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 15 ft associated with the front are currently affecting mainly the offshore waters S of 28N and scattered showers and tstms are ongoing N of 22N between 35W and 50W. Otherwise, a strong ridge continues to build behind this front while another surface ridge dominates the E Atlantic subtropical waters. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will continue to affect the offshore waters S of 28N as a cold front moves southward across the W Atlantic subtropical waters through tonight. Rough seas associated with this front will gradually subside by Tue evening. Another cold front moving off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas offshore waters Tue evening, and from 31N55W to NE Puerto Rico adjacent waters Wed evening and move E of the area by Thu evening. Fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will follow this front and affect most of the area through Thu. A third front may enter the NW offshore waters Thu night into Fri, affecting the offshore waters N of 27N with mainly moderate to fresh winds through the weekend. $$ Ramos