281 AXNT20 KNHC 112314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Nov 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell: Large northerly swell across the central Atlantic is producing hazardous seas of 12 to 19 ft from 20N to 31N between 37W and 66W. Starting tonight, this swell is expected to slowly decay while retreating northeastward, which should allow seas to gradually subside through Tuesday. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. Excessive Rainfall Risk across Southern Central America: Persistent SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This combined with a diffluent pattern aloft and the presence of a Central America Gyre (CAG) will increase the likelihood of heavy rainfall across southern Central America through at least mid-week. The most significant rainfall will affect the southwestern portions of Costa Rica. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 71W, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Enhanced by a diffluent pattern aloft, scattered moderate convection extends from 11N to 19N between 67W and 75W. This activity is affecting Hispaniola and the Mona Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is over the African continent. The ITCZ extends westward from 09N14W to 03N39W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad low pressure associated with the remnants of Rafael is located in the north-central Gulf near 27N90W. Fresh to strong winds are noted within 60 nm in the western semicircle, with seas to 9 ft. Fresh winds prevail elsewhere in the western Gulf waters, while moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted in the eastern half of the basin. For the forecast, Low pres will meander over the west central Gulf into Tue, before being absorbed by a cold front Tue night. This front will bring fresh winds to the eastern basin, with locally strong winds offshore Florida by late Wed and Wed night. Another cold front will sink into the Gulf Thu and reach the SE Gulf by Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the sections above for details on the potential heavy rainfall across Southern Central America and the tropical wave moving across the basin. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the central Caribbean with slight to moderate seas. Winds are light to gentle and seas are slight over the western half of the basin, except for occasional moderate to fresh SW winds across the offshore of Panama and Colombia. For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms will continue in the central Caribbean, including Hispaniola, as the tropical wave moves across the region through Tue. A low pressure is forecast to meander in the western Caribbean the entire forecast period, supporting moderate to fresh winds offshore Panama and Costa Rica by occasionally supporting moderate to fresh SW winds by Wed. Environmental conditions appear conductive for some gradual tropical development of this low late this week. A cold front will sag to around 20N tonight, then stall Tue and dissipate by Tue night. Large N swell associated with this front will impact NE Caribbean Passages today and the Tropical Atlantic waters into Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal system extends across most of the basin, analyzed as a cold front from 31N35W to 20N48W, then continues as a stationary front from that point to a 1012 mb low near 28N78W. Refer to the section above for details on the swell event behind this frontal system. Fresh NE to E winds prevail within 200 nm n of the fronts. Elsewhere, a strong ridge continues to build behind this front while another surface ridge dominates the E Atlantic subtropical waters. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will continue to affect the offshore waters S of 27N as the front moves southward across the W Atlantic subtropical waters through tonight. Rough seas associated with the front will gradually subside by Tue evening. Another cold front moving off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas offshore waters Tue evening, and from 31N55W to the Mona Passage Wed evening, then move E of the area by Thu evening. Fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will follow this front and affect most of the area through Thu. A third front may enter the NW offshore waters Thu night into Fri, affecting the offshore waters N of 27N with mainly moderate to fresh winds through the weekend. $$ ERA