715 AXNT20 KNHC 120612 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell: Residual large northerly swell across the central Atlantic is sustaining hazardous seas of 12 to 14 ft north of 22N between 36W and 52W. As this swell continues to decay while retreating northeastward overnight, this will allow seas to subside further through Tuesday morning and possibly drop below 12 ft Tuesday afternoon. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. Excessive Rainfall Risk across Southern Central America: Persistent SW flow associated with a Central America Gyre (CAG) will continue to bring abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. This combined with a diffluent pattern aloft will keep the potential for heavy rainfall high through at least mid- week. The most significant rainfall will affect western Costa Rica, and the southwestern corner of Panama. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from southern Haiti southward to northwestern Venezuela. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Enhanced by a diffluent pattern aloft, scattered moderate convection is occurring over the central Caribbean Basin, including the Windward Passage. There is a medium chance of tropical development when this wave enters the western Caribbean after midweek. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near Conakry, then reaches southwestward to 09N17W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N17W to 04N40W, then turns northwestward to south of Barbados at 11N59W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 04N to 08N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 16W. Similar convection is also seen up to 150 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 27W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident up to 100 nm along either side of the ITCZ east of 27W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing isolated thunderstorms across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends northward from the northern Yucatan Peninsula across a 1007 low, remnants of Rafael at the central Gulf to just east of New Orleans. Patchy showers are seen up to 80 nm along either side of the trough and low, except for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms east of New Orleans. Fresh with locally strong N to NNE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are noted at the north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are found over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate with locally fresh N to NE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, remnants of Rafael will meander over the central Gulf through Tue evening before moving to the northwestern Gulf and dissipating Wed. The pressure gradient between a strong ridge building over the eastern United States and the low will support the development of moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the eastern half of the Gulf Tue night through Thu, peaking at strong in the northeastern Gulf and the Straits of Florida Wed and Wed night. A weak cold front will sink into the northeastern Gulf Thu and exit the northeastern Gulf Thu night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning for details on the potential heavy rainfall across south Central America. Convergent southeasterly winds are generating scattered moderate convection at the eastern basin. A small 1008 mb low at the middle of the northwestern basin is causing isolated thunderstorms. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate E to SE to SW winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident across the central and eastern basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms will continue in the central basin, including Hispaniola and the Mona Passage as a tropical wave moves across the region through Tue. A low pressure at the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough will move westward into the offshore waters of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras Wed night into Thu, which should increase NE winds in the Lee of Cuba to between fresh and strong. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will spread over the remainder northwestern basin by late Thu while moderate to fresh SW winds develop over the southwestern basin. The low is forecast to deepen by Fri evening, resulting in fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the northwestern basin through early Mon. In addition, large N swell associated with a stationary front NE of Puerto Rico will continue to impact the northeast Caribbean Passages and the Tropical Atlantic waters through Wed ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from west of the Azores across 31N33W to 19N49W, then continues northward as a stationary front to 27N72W, where it becomes a warm front attaching to a 1011 mb low north east of the Bahamas at 30N75W. Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 50 nm along either side of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Strong to near-gale SE to S winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident east of the 1011 mb low, north of 29N between 65W and 71W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NNE to SE to S winds are present north of 19N between 40W and 75W/central Bahamas. Outside the significant swell area mentioned in the Special Features section, seas range from 7 to 11 ft in the same area. Farther west, gentle to moderate N to NE to SE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are present north of 20N between 75W and the Florida-Georgia coast. To the east, gentle to moderate NNE to E winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells are noted north of 10N between the African coast and 40W, including the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. For the Tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N/19N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and rough seas will continue to affect the offshore waters east of the Bahamas near a stationary front. Rough seas associated with this front will gradually subside by Tue evening. Another cold front moving off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Tue evening, and from 31N55W to the Mona Passage Wed evening, then move east of the area by Thu evening. Fresh to locally strong N to NW winds and rough seas will follow this front and affect most of the area through Thu. A third front may enter the offshore waters of northeastern Florida Thu night into Fri, affecting the waters north of 27N with mainly moderate to fresh winds through the weekend. $$ Chan