548 AXNT20 KNHC 130004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC WED Nov 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of 19N to inland Colombia near 06N. A 1008 mb low is analyzed on the wave axis at 16N. The wave is moving westward near 10 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the central Caribbean Sea from 13N to 18N between 71W-78W have become more organized in association with a broad area of low pressure (AL99). Within this area, a tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of 19N to inland Colombia near 06N. A 1008 mb low is analyzed on the wave axis at 16N. The wave is moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen south of 17N and west of 78W to inland Central America. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica and portions of Haiti during the next day or so. This system now has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Excessive Rainfall Risk across Southern Central America: The Central American Gyre (CAG) is contributing to the continued potential for excessive rainfall in the southern sections of Central America toward the end of the week and into at least the early part of the upcoming weekend. The most significant rainfall is expected to affect Costa Rica, and the northern section of Panama. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International Desk meteorologists. Please, refer to your country's national weather bureau for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Caribbean tropical wave has its along 75W south of 19N to inland Colombia, moving westward near 10 kt. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Guinea close to 10N14W to 09N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N26W, to 06N30W and to 06N39W. To its west, a trough extends from 02N54W to 07N30W. Numerous moderate to strong is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 34W-39W. Similar activity is south of the ITCZ from 02N to 09N between 15W-20W. Scattered moderate conevection is from 06N to 09N between 39W-43W, within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 19W-22W, and along and to within 90 nm offshore the coast of Africa from 04N to 08N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb low is located off the southeastern coast of Louisiana near 29N90W while a 1009 mb low is near 25N89W. A trough extends from the coastal waters of the Florida Big Bend to the 1010 mb low, and another trough extends from 1009 mb low to inland the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N89W and continues to 19N91.5W. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the basin south of 25N and west of 86W. Surface weak high pressure is over the far western Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are between 86W and 95W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the basin. Moderate seas are present from the north-central Gulf to the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are over the rest of the basin. Isolated showers are over some sections of the central and southeastern Gulf. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure, remnants of Rafael, will meander over the central Gulf through tonight before moving to the NW basin and dissipating Wed. The pressure gradient between a strong ridge building over the eastern United States and the low will support the development of moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the eastern half of the basin tonight through Thu, reaching strong speeds in the NE Gulf and the Straits of Florida Wed and Wed night. A cold front will sink into the NE Gulf Thu and exit the NE basin Thu night. Moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas will dominate the basin the remainder forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on the high chance for a broad area low pressure that is central Caribbean Sea to become a tropical cyclone, and on potential for heavy rainfall across south Central America. A surface trough extends from the central Bahamas southwestward to across central Cuba and to a 1008 mb low near 18N85W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate to fresh southerly winds surround the 73W/74W tropical wave. Moderate cyclonic wind flow surrounds the 18N85W low pressure center. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Slight to moderate seas are from Puerto Rico eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea have become more organized in associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next week. Elsewhere, large N swell associated with a stationary front NE of Puerto Rico will continue to impact the NE Caribbean Passages and the Tropical Atlantic waters through tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N31W southwestward to 21N47W to 19N61W, and northwestward to 23N63W, where it transitions to a warm front to 30N68W. A trough extends from near 31N70W southwestward to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba. A strong ridge to the north of the front, which continue to support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the offshore waters E of the Bahamas as well as rough seas to 11 ft in long period N swell. Surface ridging is to the E of the front is maintaining a moderate pressure gradient against low pressure over NW Africa. This is sustaining moderate to fresh N to NE winds from the coast of NW Africa to about 30W where moderate seas also prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and rough seas will continue to affect the offshore waters E of the Bahamas as a frontal system extends across the area. A stationary front is from 19N57W to 23N64W, then a warm front continues from that point to 31N69W. Seas associated with this system will gradually subside starting this evening. The next cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast reaching from Bermuda to the central Bahamas offshore waters tonight, from 31N55W to the Virgin Islands Wed evening, then move E of the area by Thu evening. Fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will follow this front and affect most of the area through Thu. A third front may enter the NW offshore waters Thu night into Fri, affecting the offshore waters N of 27N with mainly moderate to fresh winds through the weekend. $$ Aguirre