000 AXNT20 KNHC 131759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Nov 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INVEST AREA AL99, INCLUDING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS... A 77W/78W tropical wave is from Jamaica southward, moving westward 05 knots to 10 knots. Current precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from Jamaica southward from 66W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 270 nm of the northern part of the tropical wave. Fresh SW winds are within 150 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 12N southward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Slight to moderate seas are from Puerto Rico eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The environmental conditions are conducive for development. It is likely for a tropical depression to form within the next day or two. The movement will be moving slowly westward in the western Caribbean Sea. The system is expected to turn northwestward slowly by early next week. Anyone who has interests in the the western and northwestern sections of the Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system. Heavy rains are expected in Jamaica and in the Cayman Islands during the next day or so. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Expect strong to near gale-force winds, and gale-force winds eventually, and rough to very rough seas, for the the 30-hour forecast from 15N to 17N between 83W and 85W, and for the 48-hour forecast from 15N to 17N between 83W and 85W, including in the Gulf of Honduras. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow morning. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. A separate 1009 mb low pressure center is close to 17N85W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 75 nm of the center in the W quadrant. ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... Expect heavy rain in Costa Rica and in Panama through Saturday. The highest rainfall amounts are expected in southwestern Costa Rica and in western Panama. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International Desk meteorologists. Please, refer to your country's national weather bureau for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W. Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone close to 08N13W, to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W, to 05N24W 04N30W 03N40W. Rainshowers are possible from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 28N91W 22N86W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the north of the trough. Fresh to strong SE winds, and moderate seas, are on the northern side of the surface trough from 88W westward. A 1011 mb low pressure center is in the south central coastal plains of Louisiana. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 24N93W. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Straits of Florida. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas, from 3 feet to 5 feet, are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. An exception is for slight seas close to the middle Texas Gulf coast. A surface trough, remnants of Rafael, just S of Louisiana is forecast to merge with a cold front later today. The front will then move across the NE basin through Thu night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the eastern half of the basin will reach strong speeds in the NE Gulf and the Straits of Florida today as the pressure gradient tightens. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will develop over the western half of the Gulf early on Thu and spread over the eastern Gulf through Fri in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure moving to the western Caribbean today has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next two days. The system is forecast to move slowly NW by early next week and reach the S Gulf waters by Tue with dangerous winds and seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the high chance for a tropical wave to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Read about the potential for heavy rainfall in Costa Rica and in Panama, also. The wind speed information, and the sea height information, for the Caribbean Sea, are included in the SPECIAL FEATURES section also. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 13/1200 UTC, are: 1.40 in Trinidad; 0.56 in Curacao; 0.32 in Kingston in Jamaica; and 0.06 in Montego Bay in Jamaica. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A Gale Warning is in effect beginning on Thu for the SW Caribbean related to Invest AL99. A tropical wave/broad area of low pressure, AL99, over the west-central Caribbean continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms between 74W and 84W. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean through the weekend. The system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N59W to 27N70W, to the NW Bahamas near 26N79W. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 22N to 26N between 59W and 63W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 480 nm to the east and to the southeast of the cold front from 67W eastward. Expect for the next for the next 24 hours or so: strong SW winds and rough seas, from 28N northward between 52W and 61W; strong N to NE winds, and rough seas, from 27N northward between 62W and 80W. The forecast from 24 hours to 48 hours consists of strong to near gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, from 24N northward between 45W and 53W. A stationary front passes through 31N31W, to 25N40W 22N47W. Precipitation: rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the front. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in NW to N swell, from 10N northward between 35W and 61W, including in the Atlantic Ocean exposures and passages. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 13/1200 UTC, are: 0.24 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Fresh to strong winds prevail ahead and behind a cold front extending from 31N58W TO 26N78W. Ongoing rough seas N of 29N will continue to build across the region as the front reaches from 31N55W to Puerto Rico this evening and then exit the western subtropical Atlantic waters Thu night. A second cold front is forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Thu night into Fri, affecting the offshore waters N of 26N with fresh to near gale force winds and rough seas through Sun. $$ mt/era