875 AXNT20 KNHC 132340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Nov 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is centered near 16.1N 79.5W at 13/0000 UTC or 230 nm ENE of Cabo Gracias A Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is W of the low center and covers the waters 14N to 18N between 79W and 82W, Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 19N between 75W and 82W. The system is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow westward motion should continue for another day or two, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and continue strengthening, if it remains over water. Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Nineteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Excessive Rainfall Risk in Southern Central America: Persistent SW flow in the eastern Pacific region will continue to bring abundant tropical moisture across southern Central America. Latest model guidance indicates that the present moderate SW flow offshore Costa Rica and Panama is expected to increase toward the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend as a developing tropical disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea. The abundant tropical moisture is forecast to provide a focus for potentially heavy rainfall to occur in Costa Rica and in western Panama. This information is provided by the Weather Prediction Center's International desk team. Please refer to your national weather agency for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave that was along 78W at 1800 UTC is now classified as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen. Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues westward to near 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 05N25W to 03N40W. Convection is limited. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough, remnants of Rafael, extends from SE Louisiana to near 25N89W based on scatterometer data. The pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure of 1032 mb located over the middle Atlantic States supports fresh to strong E to SE winds on the E side of the trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft within these winds. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds and moderate seas are W of the trough axis and mainly N of 27N to about 93W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are ongoing over the remainder of the western half of the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within about 90 nm ahead of the trough. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring across the Straits of Florida in the wake of a cold front that is reaching Cuba. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas E of the above mentioned trough will prevail E of 90W through Thu night. This trough will merge with the next frontal boundary that will move across the eastern Gulf beginning on Fri. Looking ahead, the recently upgraded Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next few days. The system is forecast to move slowly NW through early next week, then reach the S Gulf waters with dangerous winds and seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is over the central Caribbean. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. Satellite derived wind data indicate fresh NE winds in the lee of east-central Cuba, and moderate to fresh E winds between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in association with these winds. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the eastern Caribbean. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the Atlantic cold front is over eastern Cuba. For the forecast, Nineteen will move to 16.2N 80.9W Thu morning, 16.3N 83.0W Thu afternoon, 16.4N 84.3W Fri morning, 16.4N 84.8W Fri afternoon, 16.3N 84.8W Sat morning, and 16.1N 84.7W Sat afternoon. Nineteen will change little in intensity as it moves to 16.3N 85.4W by Sun afternoon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N56W to the Straits of Florida. Strong high pressure of 1032 mb located over the middle Atlantic States follows the front. A band of showers and thunderstorms is well ahead of the front, and is currently reaching 20N W of 55W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are observed in the wake of the front while fresh to strong SE to S winds and rough seas are noted N of 26N and E of the front to about 50W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters E of the front. A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from 31N30W to 22N45W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are on the NW side of the front. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are noted across the tropical Atlantic W of 40W to the Lesser Antilles. An area of fresh NE winds, with seas in the 6 to 7 ft range, is occurring across the offshore waters of southern Western Saharan and Mauritania to about 20W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, gentle to moderate winds and moderate to rough seas in NW swell prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, ongoing rough seas N of 27N will continue to build across the region as the front reaches from 31N55W to Puerto Rico this evening and then exit the western subtropical Atlantic waters Thu night. A second cold front is forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Thu night into Fri, affecting the offshore waters N of 26N with fresh to near gale force winds and rough seas through Sun. $$ GR