000 AXNT20 KNHC 141754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Nov 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1755 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sara: is centered near 15.7N 82.9W at 14/1800 UTC or 180 nm ESE of Isla Guanaja Honduras, moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 8 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 100 nm in the SW semicircle of Nineteen, with similar convection in outer bands between 100 nm and 240 nm in the N quadrant, 300 nm in the W quadrant. The depression is moving toward the west and this motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Some strengthening is possible, if the system remains over water. Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life- threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides.Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Nineteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N49W to 22N62W to just north of the Mona Passage where it becomes stationary as it extends to the eastern end of Cuba. Then the stationary front begins to dissipate to near Isla de la Juventud. Very large N swell behind the front will spread southeast as the front reaches from 21N55W to near the Mona Passage tomorrow morning, while weakening. A second, stronger cold front is forecast to enter the NW offshore waters late tonight. It will be affecting the offshore waters north of 25N with fresh to near gale force winds through early Sun, reaching gale force north of 29N east of 75W Fri evening and Sat morning. Very rough seas will follow the second front through the weekend, decaying early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coast of Sierra Leone at 07N13W and continues to near 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 04N25W to 06N39W. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N between 15W and the west coast of Africa. Isolated moderate convection is depicted from 02N to 08N between 21W and 26W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Sara. A surface trough extends from near Panama City, Florida to near Cancun, Mexico. Isolated moderate convection is depicted along this trough. The pressure gradient between the trough and a ridge of high pressure extending over the eastern US supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds on the east side of the trough. Seas are 5 to 7 ft east of the trough, highest in and near the Straits of Florida. A cold front is moving across the NW and central Gulf coastal waters reaching from Pensacola, Florida to N of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh N winds are behind the front. Gentle to moderate N winds and moderate seas are elsewhere west of the trough axis and southeast of the front. Another surface trough over the Bay of Campeche is producing isolated to scattered moderate convection south of 20.5N and east of 92.5W. For the forecast, a surface trough extending from the Florida panhandle to near the Yucatan Channel will merge with a weak cold front later today, currently located over the NW Gulf coastal waters. The front will slowly shift southeast through the end of the week. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Nineteen is near 15.7N 82.6W at 10 AM EST, and is moving west at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Nineteen will strengthen to a tropical storm in the NW Caribbean near 15.7N 83.7W this evening, move to 15.9N 84.9W Fri morning, 15.9N 85.4W Fri evening, 15.9N 85.8W Sat morning, 16.0N 86.2W Sat evening, and 16.2N 87.0W Sun morning. Nineteen will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over Central America near 18.0N 89.6W early Mon. Interests in the Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Nineteen. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Sara. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds extend from the Windward Passage to between Cuba and Jamaica to the Lee of Cuba and east of 85W. Gentle to moderate SW winds are in the SW Caribbean Sea. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere in the basin. Seas are 4 to 8 ft in the Lee of Cuba and mainly 2 to 4 ft elsewhere, except 3 to 5 ft south of 13N between Colombia and Panama. Other than the convection described with Nineteen above, a narrow band of showers and thunderstorms are south of portions of Puerto Rico to near the coast of Jamaica, ahead of an Atlantic cold front. Additional activity is noted near the A-B-C Islands and offshore NW Venezuela and northern Colombia. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nineteen is near 15.7N 82.6W at 10 AM EST, and is moving west at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Nineteen will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.7N 83.7W this evening, move to 15.9N 84.9W Fri morning, 15.9N 85.4W Fri evening, 15.9N 85.8W Sat morning, 16.0N 86.2W Sat evening, and 16.2N 87.0W Sun morning. Nineteen will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over Central America near 18.0N 89.6W early Mon. Beginning tomorrow and extending through early next week, large N swell should prevail within the Atlantic passages. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information about the ongoing very large swell over the Atlantic and the upcoming Gale Warning. A cold front extends from 31N49W to 22N62W to just north of the Mona Passage where it becomes stationary as it extends to the eastern end of Cuba. Then the stationary front begins to dissipate to Isla de la Juventud. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are noted within 200 nm E and SE of the front to the east of 57W. Recent scatterometer data revealed strong to near gale for winds within the strongest convection, particularly, N of 25.5 between 46W and 51W. A large area of fresh to strong winds covers the basin behind the front, while an area of strong to near-gale force winds is north of 29.5N and east of the front. Rough seas cover the waters north of the front and continues to spread SE to S. Very rough seas are found north of 30N between 57W and 69W. Other than the cold front described above, moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere east/southeast of the front. Seas are mainly 6 to 9 ft in mainly NW to N swell east of the front, except 4 to 6 ft south and southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds prevail ahead and behind a cold front extending from 25N55W to just north of Hispaniola to eastern Cuba. Very large N swell behind the front will spread southeast as the front reaches from 21N55W to near the Mona Passage tomorrow morning, while weakening. A second, stronger cold front is forecast to enter the NW offshore waters late tonight. It will be affecting the offshore waters north of 25N with fresh to near gale force winds through early Sun, reaching gale force north of 29N east of 75W Fri evening and Sat morning. Very rough seas will follow the second front through the weekend, decaying early next week. $$ KRV