000 AXNT20 KNHC 142352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sara is centered near 15.9N 84.0W at 14/0000 UTC or 110 nm ESE of Isla Guanaja Honduras, moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 12 ft on the northern semicircle of center. Convective banding associated with the cyclone continued to improve, especially over the western semicircle of the system. This convective band is currently reaching the Cayman Islands, and is also affecting parts of the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Belize and most of Honduras. A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move close to the northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days and approach the coast of Belize on Sunday. Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of days if the center of Sara remains offshore of the northern coast of Honduras. Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning and a Significant Swell Event: Large N swell generated by an extratropical low pressure located NE of Bermuda is propagating across the forecast waters, building seas to 12 to 14 ft N of 28N between 55W and 65W. Rough to very rough seas are expected N of 28N between 50W and 60W by Fri morning before diminishing Sat. This evening, a vigorous cold front will emerge off of the Georgia/Carolinas border and quickly move eastward across the forecast area bringing strong to gale force winds and very rough seas across a large area. By Fri morning, the cold front will extend from 31N75w to Cape Canaveral with fresh to strong winds. By Sat morning, the front will extend from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas, with gale force winds north of 29N on either side of the front. By Sun morning, the front will go from 31N55W to near Puerto Rico, but with only fresh winds north of 29N. Very rough to high seas will follow this second front through the weekend, decaying early next week. Seas of 12 to 23 ft are predicted in the wake of the front by Fri night, covering the waters N of 28N between 65W and 76W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues westward to near 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 06N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 25W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to near the Yucatan Channel. A cold front is behind the trough and runs from the Florida Panhandle to just south of Tampico, Mexico. The trough axis is well defined on scatterometer data with mainly moderate winds on either side of it, except N of 28N where moderate to fresh winds are noted. Moderate to fresh N winds follow the front. A few showers are noted near these two features. Mostly moderate E to SE winds dominate the remainder of the eastern Gulf. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 4 to 6 ft over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, the surface trough and the front will merge tonight. The front will slowly shift southeastward through the weekend. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Sara has formed in the NW Caribbean. However, this system is not expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico any longer and should instead dissipate over the Yucatan peninsula. Looking ahead, a strong SE return flow should set up over the central and W Gulf on Mon, and a weak cold front may enter the NW Gulf on Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Sara. Winds and seas related to Sara dominate the NW Caribbean. Aside from Sara, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are observed across the Windward Passage, between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and in the the lee of eastern Cuba where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and slight to moderate seas dominate most of the central Caribbean, particularly W of 75W. Elsewhere across the basin, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. A frontal boundary has reached the northern Leeward Island and Puerto Rico. The San Juan Doppler radar shows the shower activity associated with the front. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Sara will move to 16.0N 84.7W Fri morning, 16.1N 85.5W Fri afternoon, 16.1N 85.9W Sat morning, 16.1N 86.4W Sat afternoon, 16.3N 87.1W Sun morning, and 16.7N 88.1W Sun afternoon. Sara will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over Central American near 19.3N 90.8W Mon afternoon. Beginning tomorrow and extending through early next week, large N swell should be occurring within the Atlantic passages. The above mentioned frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Island through Fri keeping a moist and unstable atmosphere across the islands. Then, the front should lift northward by Fri night as another cold front move across the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information about the ongoing swell event over the Atlantic and the upcoming Gale Warning associated with a vigorous cold front forecast to enter the forecast region this evening. A cold front extends from 31N49W to Puerto Rico. A wide band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are noted N of 20N E of front to about 45W. Mainly fresh NW to N winds are in the wake of the front. Rough to very rough seas follow the front. Fresh NE winds are also occurring between the Bahamas and eastern Cuba where seas are 4 to 6 ft. A low pressure system is NE of the Madeira Islands with the associated cold front reaching the Canary Islands. Between fronts, a ridge extends southward across the eastern Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trades are blowing across the tropical Atlantic between 20W and 40W building seas up to 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front and accompanying strong SW winds will move east of the area tonight. An extratropical low northeast of Bermuda is forcing fresh to strong NW winds north of 29N east of 65W. These winds will also pull northward out of our area by tonight. Large to very large N swell due to the low will continued sweeping across our waters before diminishing Sat. This evening, a vigorous cold front will emerge off of the Georgia/Carolinas border and quickly move eastward across our waters bringing gale force winds and very rough to high seas. More details about this front in the Special Features Section. $$ GR