000 AXNT20 KNHC 150552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sara is centered near 15.8N 84.8W at 15/0600 UTC or 70 nm ESE of Isla Guanaja Honduras, moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 12 ft in the northeastern quadrant of Sara. Convective banding associated with the cyclone continues to improve, especially over the western semicircle of the system where numerous strong convection persists. This convective band is currently affecting parts of the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, most of Honduras, and far northern Nicaragua. A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slow west- northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then approach the coast of Belize on Sunday. Some further strengthening is possible during the next couple of days if the center of Sara remains offshore of the northern coast of Honduras. Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning and a Significant Swell Event: Large N swell generated by an extratropical low pressure located NE of Bermuda is propagating across the forecast waters, building seas to 12 to 16 ft N of 26N between 50W and 70W. Rough to very rough seas are expected N of 25N between 45W and 65W by Fri morning before diminishing Sat. Later tonight, a vigorous cold front will emerge off of the Georgia/Carolinas border and quickly move eastward across the forecast area bringing strong to gale force winds and very rough seas across a large area. By Fri morning, the cold front will extend from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral with fresh to strong winds, increasing to gale force north of 28.5N on either side of the front Fri evening. By Sat morning, the front will extend from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas. By Sun morning, the front will reach from 31N55W to just north of Puerto Rico, but with only fresh winds north of 29N. Very rough seas will follow this second front through the weekend, decaying early next week. Seas of 12 to 28 ft in NW swell are predicted in the wake of the front, covering the waters N of 28N between 65W and 76W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and continues westward to near 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 07N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 26W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the Florida Big Bend region to the Yucatan Peninsula. A cold front is behind the trough and runs from the eastern Florida Panhandle to just north of Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh N winds follow the front. Isolated showers are noted about 60 nm E of these two features. Mostly moderate E to SE winds dominate the remainder of the eastern Gulf. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 4 to 7 ft over the SE Gulf. For the forecast, a surface trough extending from N-central Florida to the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula will merge later tonight with a cold front extending from Apalachee Bay, Florida to 22N92W to 20.5N97W. The front will slowly shift southeastward through early Sat with moderate to fresh winds behind it. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Sara is in the NW Caribbean. However, this system is no longer expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico and should instead dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula by Mon. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh E to SE return flow, locally strong, will dominate the basin Sat night through early next week. The next cold front should enter the NW Gulf by early Tue, moving across the basin through mid-week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Sara. Widely scattered thunderstorms continue across much of the Caribbean west of 78W in association with Tropical Storm Sara. Aside from Sara, gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas dominate most of the central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere across the basin, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. A frontal boundary has stalled to the north of the Greater Antilles, and is aiding in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the eastern Caribbean near the south coast of Puerto Rico. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Sara will move to 15.9N 85.3W Fri morning, 16.0N 86.0W Fri evening, 16.1N 86.4W Sat morning, 16.3N 87.0W Sat evening, 16.6N 87.9W Sun morning, and move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula and weaken to a tropical depression near 17.4N 89.2W Sun evening. Sara will dissipate over the Yucatan late Mon. Meanwhile, tonight through early next week, large N swell will be impacting occurring within the Atlantic passages. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere away from the influence of Sara, locally fresh at times south of the Dominican Republic and across the approach to the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information about the ongoing swell event over the Atlantic and the upcoming Gale Warning associated with a vigorous cold front forecast to enter the forecast region this evening. A cold front extends from 31N48W to near 19N64W. A wide band of showers and isolated thunderstorms is about 200 nm ahead of the front. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are noted N of 20N between the front and about 40W. Mainly fresh NW to N winds are in the wake of the front. Rough to very rough seas follow the front. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are also occurring between the Bahamas and eastern Cuba where seas are 4 to 6 ft. A low pressure system is located near 37N14W, with an associated cold front reaching the Canary Islands. Pockets of moderate to fresh N to NW winds are observed from recent satellite scatterometer data. AWay from these features, much of the tropical Atlantic is seeing moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 20N55W to just north of the Anegada Passage continues as a stationary front to just north of the Windward Passage with diminishing winds behind the front. Large to very large N swell due to the low will continued sweeping across our waters before subsiding into early Sat. Meanwhile, a vigorous cold front will emerge off of the Georgia/Carolinas border tonight and quickly move eastward across our waters. Tomorrow morning, the cold front will extend from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral, Florida with fresh to strong winds, increasing to gale force north of 28.5N on either side of the front Fri evening. By Sat morning, the front will extend from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas. By Sun morning, the front will reach from 31N55W to just north of Puerto Rico, but with only fresh winds north of 29N. Very rough seas will follow this second front through the weekend, decaying early next week. High pressure will build across the waters early next week. A reinforcing front or trough may clip the NE waters Tue and Tue night with increasing winds and building seas. $$ Adams