000 AXNT20 KNHC 151731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Nov 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sara is centered near 16.1N 86.0W at 1500 UTC, or 25 nm SSW of Isla Guanaja Honduras, moving W at 4 kt between the Bay Islands and the north coast of Honduras. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 14 ft. Bands of scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection extend NW through E of Sara, and cover the area south of 20.5N to Honduras and Nicaragua, between 80W and 88W. Similar rainbands also extend to the south and southwest across Central America and into the eastern Tropical Pacific. A continued very slow westward motion along or near the north coast of Honduras is expected today through Sat morning before Sara begins to move west- northwestward at a slightly faster motion Sat night, then approach the coast of Belize early Sun. Some minor strengthening is possible during the next couple of days when the center of Sara moves over open waters of the Gulf of Honduras. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause potentially catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning and a Significant Swell Event: Large NW to N swell generated by an extratropical low pressure located NE of Bermuda is propagating across the forecast waters, producing seas of to 12 to 15 ft north of 26N between 48W and 65W. Rough to very rough seas are expected N of 26N between 45W and 65W today through tonight, subsiding Sat. Meanwhile, a new cold front has entered the SW N Atlantic, and is anchored to a 999 mb surface low. The front extends from 31N75W to central Florida, with fresh to strong NNW to N winds across the waters S of 31N behind it, and gale to storm-force winds north of the area across the western semicircle of the low. As the low and front move southeastward, gale-force NW winds to 40 kt are expected to move S of 31N this evening, and shift as far south as 28N late tonight through Sat morning, then gradually lift north of 31N by Sat evening as the low and cold front progress eastward. Seas in excess of 20 ft are expected with these gale-force winds. Southerly gales are also expected to occur in a narrow 90 nm wide band east of the front and N of 29N tonight through Sat morning. By Sat morning, the front will extend from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas. By Sun morning, the front will reach from 30N55W to near Puerto Rico, but with only fresh winds N of 29N by then. Very rough seas of 10 ft and greater in northerly swell will follow this front through the weekend, reaching as far south of 21N in Sun, before fading early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across equatorial Africa and reaches near the coast of Guinea near 10.5N13W. The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to 06N38W to 10N57W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09.5N E of 20W to the coast of Africa, and from 09N to 13.5N between 44W and 56W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 20W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across south-central Florida just north of Lake Okeechobee, and enters the Gulf of Mexico near Fort Meyers, then extends southwestward to near 19.5N93W then westward to near the Mexican coast north of Veracruz. No significant convection is noted near the front. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds follow the front with seas of 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 3 ft in the northern coastal waters, and west of 95W. Ahead of the front, winds have shifted NE to E at gentle to moderate speed, with 2 to 4 ft seas except to 5 ft in the Florida Current. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to slowly progress southeastward through tonight before dissipating. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail along and behind the front. A tightening pressure gradient between Tropical Storm Sara in the NW Caribbean and building high pressure in the southeastern U.S. will support widespread moderate to fresh E winds over much of the basin, away from the Bay of Campeche, this weekend into early next week. SE return flow will become strong offshore of Texas Sun into early next week ahead of a strong cold front moving through the Southern Plains. Tropical Storm Sara is expected to quickly weaken as the system moves over the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend before emerging into the Bay of Campeche early next week. Locally strong winds and rough seas will be possible surrounding the remnant low of Sara. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Sara. Bands of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the Caribbean west of 79W in association with Tropical Storm Sara as described above. Aside from Sara, light to gentle winds are found east of 75W, with moderate to fresh S to SW winds west of 75W. Seas are 3 ft or less east of 75W, except 6 to 8 ft through and immediately south of the Atlantic Passages. A frontal boundary has stalled along the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, and is accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the islands and waters N of 17.5N. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Sara will continue to move westward along or near the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday before approaching Belize, and ultimately moving onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Away from the direct impacts from Sara, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will occur over the northwestern Caribbean over the next several days. Large N swell will continue to support to locally rough seas through the Atlantic passages this weekend. A strong cold front slated to move through the western Atlantic this weekend will reinforce rough seas through the Atlantic passages for the second half of this weekend into next week. High pressure behind this cold front will promote fresh to strong E to NE winds on Sun through the Atlantic passages and in the lee of Cuba, continuing into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information about the ongoing swell event over the Atlantic and an upcoming Gale Warning associated with a vigorous cold front entering the SW N Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N47W to 20N57W then becomes stationary across the north entrance to the Anegada Passage, then westward along the north coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and NE and central Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the cold front, while scattered showers are along and within 120 nm north of the stationary front. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are noted north of 24N within 180-240 nm ahead of the front, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. A 1014 mb high is centered NW of the front near 25N65W, producing mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds west of the front and away from the new front just offshore of the SE United States. Ahead of the new cold front off of Florida, fresh to strong W to SW dominate the waters north of 28N and west of 70W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds dominate the waters east of the front and extend into the trade wind zone. Another cold front extends from the Canary Islands to 25N21W then becomes a frontal trough to 29N37W. Seas of 7 to 10 ft in NE swell are north of the front. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters east of the central Atlantic front, except 6 to 8 ft from 14N to 22N between Africa and 22W due to a fetch of locally fresh winds there combined with NW swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front currently extending along the north coasts of the Greater Antilles will progress slowly southeastward into this evening before dissipating. Large N swell behind the front will continue to support rough to very rough seas before subsiding into early Sat. A significant cold front moving into the northwestern Atlantic waters and Florida will progress quickly toward the east=southeast through Sat, with strong to gale-force winds behind the front for areas north of 26.5N and east 79.5W, with the strongest winds occurring north of 29.5N tonight into Sat. By Sat morning, the front will extend from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas. By Sun morning, the front will reach from 30N55W to near Puerto Rico, but with only fresh winds N of 29N by then. Very rough seas in large northerly swell will follow this second front through the weekend, with very high seas in excess of 20 ft possible north of 29N between 65W and 75W on Sat. Rough seas will sweep through the western Atlantic waters into early next week. A reinforcing front or trough may clip the NE waters Tue and Tue night with increasing winds and building seas. $$ Stripling