000 AXNT20 KNHC 160553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Nov 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sara is centered near 16.1N 86.3W at 16/0600 UTC or 30 nm SW of Isla Guanaja Honduras, stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 16 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with the circulation of Sara is affecting most of the NW Caribbean, Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, far northwestern Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. No significant change in strength is forecast before landfall on Sunday. Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential for mudslides. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning and a Significant Swell Event: A vigorous cold front extending from a hurricane force low N of the area near 33N70W through 31N69W to the Upper Florida Keys has gale force winds from 29N to 31N between 69W and 74W. The front will reach from 31N61W to 20N72.5W Sat evening, then from 25N55W to the Anegada Passage Sun evening while weakening significantly. Very rough seas are following this front and will continue through the weekend, with very high seas possible N of 27N between 65W and 75W on Sat and Sat night. Rough to very rough seas are currently noted in the wake of the front. These seas are expected to dominate waters N of 28N between 65W and 78W overnight tonight. As the low and front move southeastward, gale-force NW winds to 40 kt are expected to move as far south as 28N late tonight through Sat morning, then gradually lift north of 31N by Sat evening as the low and cold front progress eastward. Seas in excess of 20 ft are expected with these gale-force winds. Southerly gales are also expected to occur in a narrow 90 nm wide band east of the front and N of 29N tonight through Sat morning. By Sat morning, the front will extend from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas. By Sun morning, the front will reach from 30N55W to near Puerto Rico, but with only fresh winds N of 29N by then. Very rough seas of 10 ft and greater in northerly swell will follow this front through the weekend, reaching as far south of 21N in Sun, before fading early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across equatorial Africa, entering the Atlantic near 07N13W. The ITCZ then extends from 07N14W to 08N57W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 15W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the far southern tip of Florida west- southwestward into the Gulf. It becomes a stationary front near 23N90W, with the stationary front then running south-southwestward through the Bay of Campeche and inland over Mexico. Moderate to fresh E winds are observed south and east of the fronts, while gentle to moderate E winds are north and west. Seas of 2 to 5 ft are common across much of the Gulf, locally up to 6 ft in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Sara. Bands of showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the Caribbean west of 77W in association with Tropical Storm Sara as described above. Aside from Sara, light to gentle winds are found east of 77W, with moderate to fresh S to SW winds west of 77W. Seas of 1 to 4 ft are observed across much of the Caribbean east of 77W, except for pockets of 4 to 7 ft seas through the NE Caribbean passages. A frontal boundary has stalled along the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, and is accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on the south coasts of the Greater Antilles. For the forecast, ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information about the ongoing swell event over the Atlantic and a Gale Warning associated with a vigorous cold front currently moving across the SW N Atlantic. Another cold front extends from 31N46W to 19N59W then becomes stationary along the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, from Puerto Rico to eastern Cuba. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is ahead of the front over the Atlantic waters. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted north of 20N ahead of the front to about 43W, where seas are 6 to 10 ft. In the wake of the front gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW to N swell. Farther E, over the eastern Atlantic, another cold front extends from the west coast of Africa near 23N16W to 23N23W, then becomes a frontal trough to 28N30W. Seas of 6 to 10 ft in NE swell are north of this third front. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the Atlantic waters away from these features, along with moderate to fresh E winds. For the forecast west of 55W, $$ Adams