000 AXNT20 KNHC 160847 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Nov 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0810 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sara is centered near 16.1N 86.3W at 16/0900 UTC or 20 nm SE of Isla Roatan Honduras, stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 16 ft. Numerous moderate convection is noted within 120 nm in the NE semicircle and 270 nm in the SW semicircle. Similar convection is displaced and noted from 15N to 21N between 76W and 86W. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin late today, with a faster motion toward the west-northwest and northwest expected on Sun and Sun night. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day on Sun. Little change in strength is likely today. Slight strengthening is possible tonight and Sun before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to dissipate Sun night or Mon as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning and a Significant Swell Event: A vigorous cold front extending from a storm force 989 mb low just west of Bermuda near 32N68W to 27N70W to the Straits of Florida with gale force winds north of 28.5N between 65W and 73W which are shifting E with the front. Winds are estimated to be up to 45 kt but are beginning to diminish slightly. Gale force winds will diminish late tonight while the front will reach from 31N57W to the Anegada Passage Sun while weakening significantly. Very rough seas is following this second front and will through the weekend, with very high seas possible N of 27N between 65W and 75W today and tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across equatorial Africa to the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to just offshore at 07.5N13.5W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N13.5W to 04N33W to 05N45W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 13N between 13W and 29W, with similar convection from 02N to 10N between 37W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extending from the Straits of Florida to the central Gulf near 23.5N89W continues as stationary to the eastern Bay of Campeche near 19N92W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are east of 92W with gentle to moderate west of 92W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the SE half of the basin, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted just NW of the stationary front portion. For the forecast, the front will wash out over the far SE Gulf later today with the remnants drifting west as a trough through tonight. High pressure will build in from the NE with a tight pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin by early Sun, then locally strong from the Yucatan Channel to the Texas coast through Mon. The next front will move into the NW Gulf by early Tue, reaching from Apalachee Bay to Tampico, Mexico early Wed, with reinforcing fresh to strong northerly winds and large seas across the basin Wed night. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Sara is forecast to move over the Yucatan Peninsula later today through Sun, dissipating as it approaches the eastern Bay of Campeche Mon afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Sara is near the coast of Honduras at 16.1N 86.3W at 4 AM EST, and is nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information. Bands of showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the Caribbean west of 76W in association with Tropical Storm Sara as described above. Aside from Sara, light to gentle winds are found east of 81W, except gentle to moderate in the SE Caribbean and also offshore eastern Panama. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are found west of 81W and away from Sara. Seas of 1 to 4 ft are observed across much of the Caribbean east of 82W, except for pockets of 5 to 8 ft seas through the NE Caribbean passages. Seas are 3 to 7 ft in the NW Caribbean away from Sara. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary has stalled along the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, and is accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on the south coasts of the Greater Antilles. For the forecast, Sara will move along the coast to 16.3N 86.6W this afternoon, near the coast of Belize at 16.7N 87.6W Sun morning, inland over the Yucatan Peninsula to 17.3N 89.1W Sun afternoon, and weaken to a tropical depression near 18.6N 90.8W Mon morning, dissipating as it approaches the eastern Bay of Campeche Mon afternoon. Away from the direct impacts from Sara, fresh to locally strong easterly winds will occur over the northwestern Caribbean through Mon. Large N swell will continue to support to locally rough seas through the Atlantic passages this weekend. A strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend will reinforce rough seas through the Atlantic passages for the second half of this weekend into next week. Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds look to develop on Sun through the Atlantic passages and in the lee of Cuba, continuing into early next week. A strong cold front may also slip SE of the Yucatan Channel mid-week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information about the ongoing swell event over the Atlantic and a Gale Warning associated with a vigorous cold front currently moving across the SW N Atlantic. Another cold front extends from 31N46W to 19.5N55W where it becomes stationary along the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, from Puerto Rico to eastern Cuba. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is ahead of the front over the Atlantic waters as well as over portions of the Greater Antilles. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted north of 22N ahead of the front to about 42W, where seas are 7 to 10 ft. In the wake of the front, gentle to moderate winds prevail, except moderate to strong north of 25N and west of 60W outside of the front associated with the gale force winds, along with seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW to N swell in the gentle to moderate wind area. Farther E, over the eastern Atlantic, another cold front extends from the west coast of Africa near 23N16W to 23N23W, then becomes a frontal trough to 24N33W. Seas of 6 to 10 ft in NE swell are north of this third front. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the Atlantic waters away from these features, along with mainly gentle to moderate winds, except fresh to strong north of 30N between 12W and 23W. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate through tonight before shifting E as a remnant trough ahead of the next cold front. That cold front, as described in the Special Features section, will reach from 31N57W to the Anegada Passage Sun while weakening significantly. Very rough seas is following this second front and will through the weekend, with very high seas possible N of 27N between 65W and 75W today and tonight. A reinforcing front or trough may clip the NE waters Tue and Tue night with increasing winds and building seas. Yet another cold front may move off the SE United States mid-week with another round of increasing winds and building seas. $$ Lewitsky