000 AXNT20 KNHC 161754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sara is centered near 16.3N 86.8W at 16/1800 UTC or 20 nm W of Isla Roatan Honduras, moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently 17 ft. Scattered moderate convection is along the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and Quintana Roo. A faster motion toward the west- northwest and northwest expected on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the Bay Islands of Honduras today before approaching Belize tonight, and then moving onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to dissipate Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Please also refer to products from your local weather service for more information. Atlantic Gale Warning and a Significant Swell Event: A strong cold front extends from a 992 mb low just north of Bermuda near 32N65W to the north coast of Cuba near 23N70W. Gale force NW winds are currently north of 28N between 66W and 70W, and propagating eastward with the front. Gale force winds will diminish late tonight while the front will reach from 31N57W to the Anegada Passage Sun while weakening significantly. Very rough seas are behind this front. Seas greater than 12 ft are north of a line from 31N60W to 25N72W to 31N77W, with peak seas to 23 ft near 30N67W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 09N12W to 05N45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stalled front extends from the eastern tip of Cuba to the Bay of Campeche. No significant convection is analyzed at this time. Moderate to locally fresh NNE winds prevail in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, E winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 3-5 ft across the Gulf. For the forecast, the front will wash out over the far SE Gulf later today with the remnants drifting west as a trough through tonight. High pressure will build in from the NE with a tight pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin by early Sun, then locally strong from the Yucatan Channel to the Texas coast through Mon. The next front will move into the NW Gulf by early Tue, reaching from Apalachee Bay to Tampico, Mexico early Wed, with reinforcing fresh to strong northerly winds and large seas across the basin Wed night. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Sara is forecast to move over the Yucatan Peninsula later today through Sun, dissipating as it approaches the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on TROPICAL STORM SARA. Outside of the NW Caribbean and the influence of TROPICAL STORM SARA, the scatterometer data from this morning indicates light to gentle trades across the remaining Caribbean waters. Seas are 3-5 ft in these benign conditions. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to 19N, between 76W and 82W, including over Jamaica. For the forecast, Sara will move to 16.4N 86.9W this evening, 16.9N 88.0W Sun morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 17.8N 89.6W Sun evening, inland to 19.2N 90.8W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening. Away from the direct impacts from Sara, fresh to strong easterly winds will occur over the northwestern Caribbean through Mon. Large N swell will continue to support to rough seas through the Atlantic passages this weekend. A strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend will reinforce rough seas through the Atlantic passages for the second half of this weekend into next week. Fresh to strong E to NE winds look to develop on Sun through the Atlantic passages and in the lee of Cuba, continuing into early next week. A strong cold front may also slip SE of the Yucatan Channel by mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a GALE WARNING. In addition to the front associated with the GALE WARNING above, a stationary front extends from 31N45W to the northern Leeward Islands. Moderate winds and 8-9 ft seas follow this front. Scattered showers are along the frontal boundary. 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 28N37W. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail in the western Atlantic waters, with 6-8 ft seas. Elsewhere in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, NE to E winds are gentle to moderate and seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate today before shifting E as a remnant trough ahead of the next cold front. That cold front extends from 31N63W to the Straits of Florida with gale force winds north of 28.5N between 65W and 70W which are shifting E with the front. Gale force winds will diminish late tonight while the front will reach from 31N57W to the Anegada Passage Sun while weakening significantly. Very rough seas are following this second front and will through the weekend, with very high seas possible N of 27N between 65W and 75W today and tonight. A reinforcing front or trough may clip the NE waters Tue and Tue night with increasing winds and building seas. Yet another cold front may move off the SE United States mid-week with another round of increasing winds and building seas. $$ Mahoney