000 AXNT20 KNHC 162344 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Nov 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sara is centered near 16.4N 87.0W at 16/2100 UTC or 20 nm WNW of Isla Roatan Honduras, moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently 15 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the NW Caribbean from 15N to 20N W of 76W. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will approach Belize tonight before moving onshore over Belize during the day on Sunday. Only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected before landfall in Belize on Sunday, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night or Monday as its remnants move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Please also refer to products from your local weather service for more information. Atlantic Gale Warning and a Significant Swell Event: A strong cold front extends from a 992 mb low just NE of Bermuda near 34N62W to 31N60W to 24N65W to central Cuba near 22N79W. Gale force winds are currently north of 27N between 56W and 64W ahead and behind the front. Gale force winds will diminish late tonight while the front will reach from 31N57W to the Anegada Passage. Very rough seas to 17 ft are ahead and behind this front. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 07N13W to 06N28W to 05N45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 12N between 19W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the southern gulf waters from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula offshore waters near 22N90W to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Fresh NE to E winds are over the SE Gulf in the vicinity of this front tail along with moderate seas. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere E of 95W. Light to gentle winds are ongoing W of 95W with slight seas. For the forecast, the front will dissipate tonight. High pressure will build in from the NE with a tight pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin by early Sun, then locally strong from the Yucatan Channel to the Texas coast through Mon. The next front will move into the NW Gulf by early Tue, reaching from Apalachee Bay to Tampico, Mexico early Wed, with reinforcing fresh to strong northerly winds and large seas across the basin Wed night. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Sara is forecast to move over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Sun, dissipating as it approaches the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on TROPICAL STORM SARA. Tropical Storm Sara is near 16.4N 87.0W at 4 PM EST, and is moving west at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Over the southwest, central and eastern Caribbean winds are light to gentle and seas are slight, except for moderate E winds in the SE Caribbean, moderate NE winds in the Windward Passage and moderate seas in N swell in the Mona Passage. For the forecast, Sara will move to 16.5N 87.5W Sun morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 17.1N 88.9W Sun afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 18.5N 90.7W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon afternoon. Away from the direct impacts from Sara, fresh to strong easterly winds will occur over the northwestern Caribbean through Mon. Large N swell will continue to support to rough seas through the Atlantic passages this weekend. A strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend will reinforce rough seas through the Atlantic passages for the second half of this weekend and into next week. Fresh to strong E to NE winds look to develop on Sun through the Atlantic passages and in the lee of Cuba, continuing into early next week. The next cold front may slip SE of the Yucatan Channel by mid- week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a GALE WARNING. In addition to the front in the west subtropical Atlantic associated with the GALE WARNING, a stationary front extends from the central subtropics near 31N46W SW to 21N52W where it starts to dissipate to the northern Dominican Republic. Only gentle to moderate winds, moderate seas and isolated showers are associated with this front. Surface ridging covers the eastern subtropical waters between 30W and 45W with gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas to 7 ft. Over the far eastern subtropical waters, a stationary front extends from NW Africa to 23N23W. The area of low pressure associated with this front is supporting 8-9 ft in NE swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the weakening stationary front will dissipate tonight ahead of the next cold front. The gale force winds associated with the cold front will diminish late tonight while the front reaches from 31N57W to the Anegada Passage Sun while weakening significantly. Very rough seas following this front will continue through the weekend, with very high seas possible N of 27N between 65W and 75W tonight. A reinforcing front or trough may clip the NE waters on Tue with increasing winds and building seas. Yet another cold front may move off the SE United States mid-week with another round of increasing winds and building seas. $$ Ramos