000 AXNT20 KNHC 170553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Nov 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sara is centered near 16.6N 87.6W at 17/0600 UTC or 70 nm SSE of Belize City, moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently estimated near 12 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the NW Caribbean from 15N to 20N W of 75W. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move over Belize later today. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall on Sunday, with dissipation expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula by early Monday. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night or Monday as its remnants move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Please also refer to products from your local weather service for more information. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N58.5W to 24N60W, and then westward to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Gale force winds on either side of the front have largely diminished, with any remaining gale-force winds likely related to ongoing convection. Very rough seas persist, with seas in excess of 12 ft occurring north of 23N between 57W and 74W. Peak seas are currently estimated around 21 ft near 29N65W. The front will reach from 27N55W to near the Windward Passage early Mon, dissipating over the SE waters thereafter. Very rough seas are following this front and will continue through the weekend, with very high seas possible N of 27N between 65W and 75W tonight. Seas then look to gradually lower through the day Sunday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 08N13W to 04N23W to 08N52W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 13N between 19W and 40W, with another cluster of scattered moderate convection near the end of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the southern gulf waters from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula offshore waters near 22N90W to the eastern Bay of Campeche. This portion of the front is in the process of dissipating. Fresh NE to E winds are over the SE Gulf in the vicinity of this front along with moderate seas. To the north of this front and E of 90W, moderate to fresh E winds and slight seas are observed. The remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, a stationary front extends across the southern gulf waters along 23N reaching the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are east of 95W with gentle to moderate west of 95W. The front will dissipate tonight. High pressure will build in from the NE with a tight pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin by early Sun, then locally strong from the Yucatan Channel to the Texas coast Sun night through Mon. The next front will move into the NW Gulf Mon night, reaching from Apalachee Bay to Tampico, Mexico early Wed, with reinforcing fresh to strong northerly winds and large seas across the basin Wed night as the front pushes SE of the basin. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Sara is forecast to move over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Sun, dissipating as it approaches the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on TROPICAL STORM SARA. Away from Sara, a cold front is pushing into the NW Caribbean, sparking numerous moderate convection across areas within 50 nm of the front. Areas of convergent surface winds between Sara and NE flow ahead of the approaching cold front is also leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central to western Caribbean. A pre-frontal trough also extends from the Anegada Passage into the central and eastern Caribbean, with scattered showers and thunderstorms observed in the vicinity of the trough. Aside from convection, recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong E to NE winds in the NW Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds across more of the SW Caribbean, as well as the Windward and Mona Passages. Moderate seas are also analyzed across these regions and passages. The remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Sara will move to near Belize at 16.7N 88.0W Sun morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression over the Yucatan Peninsula near 17.6N 89.6W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning as it approaches the eastern Bay of Campeche. Away from the direct impacts from Sara, fresh to strong easterly winds will occur over the northwestern Caribbean through the early part of the week. Large N swell will continue to support to rough seas through the Atlantic passages through early Mon. Fresh to strong E to NE winds look to develop on Sun through the Atlantic passages and in the lee of Cuba, continuing into early next week. The next cold front may slip SE of the Yucatan Channel by mid-week with fresh to strong winds and building seas behind it, reaching from central Cuba to eastern Honduras late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a significant swell event in the Atlantic. The cold front associated with the swell event extends from 31N58.5W to 24N60W and then westward to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered showers are observed along and in the vicinity of the front. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed roughly 75-100 nm ahead of the front, and is sparking scattered moderate to strong convection along and within 230 nm ahead of the trough. A stationary front extends from near 31N46W to 23N49W, with scattered moderate convection near the south end of the front. Aside from convection and marine conditions associated with fronts and other large-scale systems, moderate to fresh E winds are depicted via recent scatterometer data from 30W to the Lesser Antilles between the Equator and 16N. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are observed in this region as well. A low north of the Madeira Islands extends a stationary front and a surface trough across the northeastern tropical Atlantic, with the main impact being seas of 6 to 8 ft occurring north of 22N between 18W and 33W. The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing gentle to moderate E to NE winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front from 31N58.5W to the Turks and Caicos Islands and continuing as stationary to across central Cuba has a pre-frontal trough within 90-180 nm ahead of it, along with numerous showers and thunderstorms ahead of the trough. Gale force winds on either side of the front N of 29N between 55W and 65W will diminish later tonight as the front weakens. The front will reach from 27N55W to near the Windward Passage early Mon, dissipating over the SE waters thereafter. Very rough seas is following this front and will continue through the weekend, with very high seas possible N of 27N between 65W and 75W tonight. A reinforcing front or trough may clip the NE waters on Tue with increasing winds and building seas. Yet another cold front may move off the SE United States mid-week with another round of increasing winds and building seas. $$ Adams