000 AXNT20 KNHC 171005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Nov 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sara: is centered near 16.8N 87.8W at 17/0900 UTC or 50 nm SSE of Belize City, moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 13 ft. Convection has increased during the past several hours with numerous moderate isolated strong found within 150 nm of the center of Sara. Similar convection converging offshore near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua is from 14N to 17.5N between 81W and 84W. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will make landfall in Belize late this morning or around midday. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall. Weakening is forecast after the storm moves inland, and dissipation is expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or Mon. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N58W to 22N64W to near the Windward Passage at 20N74W. A low pressure system north of the area that had hurricane force winds yesterday north of the area and gale force over our area generated very large northerly swell, and remnants of that swell with seas of 8 ft or greater are near and just west of the front. Seas of 12 ft or greater are north of 23N within 600 nm west of the front, up to 18 ft near 29N63W. The front is forecast to continue to weaken today and seas are forecast to subside to less than 12 ft behind it by this evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland over the African continent, reaching just to the coast of Sierra Leone at 08N13W. The ITCZ extends from 08N13W to 04N22W to 08N52W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 13N between 18W and 41W, with another cluster of scattered moderate convection near the end of the ITCZ from 07N to 12N between 50W and 58W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over the SE United States dominates the basin with moderate to fresh E to SE return flow, except gentle to moderate in the SW Gulf. Seas are 3 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the W-central and SW Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico, as well as in the NE Gulf coastal waters where winds are slightly lighter. An isolated thunderstorms is possible in the Bay of Campeche near 19N92.5W due to the tail end of the remnants of a cold front that passed by. For the forecast, winds will increase to fresh to strong from near the Yucatan Channel to the NW Gulf coast tonight through Mon. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon night, reaching from SW Louisiana to near Tamaulipas, Mexico early Tue, then from Apalachee Bay to Tampico, Mexico early Wed. Reinforcing fresh to strong northerly winds and large seas are forecast across the basin Wed night as the front pushes SE of the basin. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Sara is forecast to move over the Yucatan Peninsula today, dissipating before it reaches the eastern Bay of Campeche Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Sara is near the coast of Belize at 16.8N 87.8W at 4 AM EST, and is moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Sara. Away from Sara, a cold front is pushing into the NW Caribbean from near the NE tip of Cuba along the SE coast of Cuba to near 19.5N83.5W. This front is sparking numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms within 210 nm SE of the front. A pre-frontal trough also extends from near the Virgin Islands to south of Puerto Rico and south of the Mona Passage near 16N69.5W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms observed in the vicinity of the trough. Fresh to strong winds are in the NW Caribbean north of roughly 15N and west of 79W. Moderate to fresh winds are funneling through the Windward Passage and Anegada Passage, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the basin. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the NW Caribbean and mainly 2 to 4 ft across the remainder of the basin away from Sara, except 6 to 7 ft in Atlantic Passages due to persistent northerly swell. For the forecast, Sara will weaken to a tropical depression near 17.3N 88.8W over the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon, move to 18.6N 90.6W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front from the SE coast of Cuba to along 19.5N has fresh to strong winds behind it. The front will shift SE while weakening through the early part of the week with fresh to strong pulsing winds across the approaches to Atlantic Passages and in the Lee of Cuba through early Tue. Large N swell will continue to support to rough seas through the Atlantic passages through early Mon. The next cold front may slip SE of the Yucatan Channel by mid-week with fresh to strong winds and building seas behind it, reaching from central Cuba to eastern Honduras late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a significant swell event in the Atlantic behind a cold front. That cold front from 31N58W to just N of the Windward Passage has a pre-frontal trough within 60-180 nm ahead of it, along with numerous showers and thunderstorms within 180-300 nm ahead of the trough including frequent lightning. Fresh to at least strong winds are in the convection ahead of the pre-frontal trough as well north of 29N between 53W and 67W where the pressure gradient related to parent low pressure north of the area remains the tightest. To the east, an old stationary front extends from near 31N45.5W to 23N49.5W with moderate to fresh S winds within 180 nm ahead of it. A frontal trough extends from across the Canary Islands to 21N35W. Associated moderate to fresh W to NW winds are north of 29N between Africa and 35W, along with 7 to 10 ft seas in northerly swell. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere east of 35W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic, except locally fresh trades south of 17N and west of 30W. SEas are 6 to 8 ft across the remainder of the waters ahead of the cold front. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will reach from 24N55W to near the Anegada Passage early Mon, dissipating over the SE waters thereafter. Very rough seas is following this front and will continue through this afternoon. A reinforcing front or trough may clip the NE waters Tue and Tue night, with increasing winds and building seas. Yet another cold front may move off the SE United States Wed night, with another round of increasing winds and building seas. That front may reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas late Thu. $$ Lewitsky