000 AXNT20 KNHC 172340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Nov 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Sara is centered near 17.8N 89.5W at 17/2100 UTC or 140 nm SSE of Campeche Mexico, moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 10-11 ft. Numerous heavy showers are occuring inland over Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the eastern Bay of Campeche and in the NW Caribbean. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move over the Yucatan Peninsula before it opens up into a trough either tonight or tomorrow. Further weakening is expected, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low or open up into a trough over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough is inland over the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 07N12W to 04N27W to 05N37W to 03N45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 10W and 21W, and from 01N to 10N between 26W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over the SE United States and its associated ridge dominates the basin with moderate to fresh E to SE return flow, except for strong E winds over the northern Yucatan Peninsula offshore waters and strong SE winds over southern Texas adjacent waters. Seas are 5-8 ft in both the SE and NW Gulf and slight to moderate elsewhere. Otherwise, scattered showers in rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Sara are affecting the eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, winds will increase to fresh to strong from near the Yucatan Channel to the NW Gulf coast tonight through Mon. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon night, reaching from SW Louisiana to near Tamaulipas, Mexico early Tue, then from Apalachee Bay to Tampico, Mexico early Wed. Reinforcing fresh to strong northerly winds and large seas are forecast across the basin Wed night as the front pushes SE of the basin. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Sara will continue to move over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, before dissipating over or near the eastern Bay of Campeche Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA. Tropical Depression Sara is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula near 17.8N 89.5W at 4 PM EST, and is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Scattered showers and tstms in rainbands associated with Sara continue to affect portions of the NW Caribbean and the offshore waters of Nicaragua. Meanwhile, the tail of a cold front extends across Hispaniola to SW Haiti where it starts to dissipate into the Windward Passage. Strong high pressure over Georgia with associated ridge extending to the northern and central Caribbean supports fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas to 8 ft over the NW Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are across the Windward Passage behind the front while fresh to strong NE winds are over the Dominican Republic southern adjacent waters. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are elsewhere, except for moderate seas in La Mona Passage due to large northerly swell. For the forecast, Sara will move inland to 18.9N 91.1W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon afternoon. The cold front will shift SE while weakening through the early part of the week with fresh to strong pulsing winds across the approaches to Atlantic Passages and in the Lee of Cuba through early Tue. Large N swell will continue to support to rough seas through the Atlantic passages through early Mon. The next cold front may slip SE of the Yucatan Channel by mid-week with fresh to strong winds and building seas behind it, reaching from central Cuba to eastern Honduras late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging anchored by strong high pressure over Georgia is building across the western subtropical Atlantic waters in the wake of a cold front that extends from 31N50W SW to NE Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and tstms are ongoing within 360 nm ahead of the front. Fresh to strong NW to W winds and rough seas to 12 ft following the front are affecting the waters N of 29N between 55W and 68W while large northerly swell to 8 ft reaches from the southern Bahamas to the NE Caribbean Passages. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are ahead of the front N of 25N along with rough seas to 9 ft reaching as far as 45W. The eastern subtropical waters are under the influence of another ridge, except E of 27W where a broad area of low pressure still prevails, supporting 8-9 ft seas. Only gentle to moderate winds are over these waters as well as the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from 24N55W to near the Anegada Passage early Mon, dissipating over the SE waters thereafter. Very rough seas following the front will continue through tonight. A reinforcing front or trough may clip the NE waters on Tue, with increasing winds and building seas. The next cold front may move off the SE United States Wed night, with another round of increasing winds and building seas. This front may reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by late Thu. $$ Ramos