248 AXNT20 KNHC 180542 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Nov 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Sara is centered near 18.1N 90.7W at 18/0300 UTC or 110 nm S of Campeche Mexico, moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring inland over Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as over portions of the Bay of Campeche and the NW Caribbean. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move over the Yucatan Peninsula through Monday morning. Further weakening is expected, and Sara is forecast to become a remnant low or open into a trough of low pressure by Monday morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and continues to 07N15W. The ITCZ then continues from from 07N15W to 04N24W to 07N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N to 09N between the coast of Africa and 19W, and from 02N to 11N between 23W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered near 32N79W and its associated ridge dominates the basin with moderate to fresh E to SE return flow, except fresh to strong from the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula to the Texas coast. Seas are 5-8 ft across much of the Gulf, aside from the far northeastern Gulf where seas are 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE return flow and fresh to strong flow from the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula to the Texas coast will persist through Mon. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon night, reaching from SW Louisiana to near Tamaulipas, Mexico early Tue, then from Apalachee Bay to Tampico, Mexico early Wed. Reinforcing fresh to strong northerly winds and large seas are forecast across the basin Wed night as the front pushes SE of the basin behind the front starting Wed. The front will push SE of the basin by early Thu with conditions gradually improving through the end of the week as high pressure builds in. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Sara is forecast to move from the Yucatan Peninsula to the eastern Bay of Campeche overnight while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone before dissipating. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA. The tail of a cold front extends from the Anegada Passage across the southern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. A pre-frontal trough is also analyzed across the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing in the central and eastern Caribbean due to convergent surface winds in the region. Strong high pressure off the southeastern US with an associated ridge extending to the northern and central Caribbean supports fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas to 8 ft over the NW Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are across the northern Caribbean Passages. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are elsewhere across the basin, except for moderate seas in the Mona Passage due to large northerly swell. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Sara will become a remnant low as it moves into the eastern Bay of Campeche near 19.3N 92.0W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening. Meanwhile, a cold front from the NE Caribbean to south of the Greater Antilles will stall and gradually wash out through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish by mid-week as a cold front moves by NW of the area in the Gulf of Mexico. The front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Wed night, reaching from central Cuba to near northern Nicaragua early Fri with increasing winds and building seas behind it. Meanwhile, seas of around 8 ft in northerly swell in the Atlantic passages will subside into early Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging anchored by strong high pressure over the southeastern US is building across the western subtropical Atlantic waters in the wake of a cold front that extends from 31N51W SW to Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing within 360 nm ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh NW to W winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft following the front are affecting the waters N of 18N between 50W and 70W. The eastern subtropical waters are under the influence of another ridge with gentle to moderate E winds and moderate seas, except E of 87W where a broad area of low pressure still prevails, supporting 7-10 ft seas north of 28N. Gentle to moderate cyclonic flow is observed in this region as well. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front from 25N55W to across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will slowly shift SE while weakening through Mon. Active convection will persist ahead of the front. Large seas are following the front and will continue through tonight. A reinforcing front or trough will clip the NE waters Tue and Tue night, with increasing winds and building seas. The next cold front may move off the SE United States late Wed night, with another round of increasing winds and building seas. This front may reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by early Fri. $$ Adams