000 AXNT20 KNHC 182230 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Nov 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W to 10N16W. The ITCZ extends from 10N16W to 07N32W to 09N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 15W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure centered near 30N78W and its associated ridge dominates the basin with moderate to fresh E to SE return flow. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across these winds. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the remainder of the basin. The remnants of Sara are producing isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure system centered over the E United States dominates the basin with moderate to fresh E to SE return flow, except fresh to strong from the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula to the Texas coast which will persist through tonight. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf tonight, reaching from S-central Louisiana to near Tamaulipas, Mexico early Tue, then from Apalachee Bay to Tampico, Mexico early Wed. Reinforcing fresh to strong northerly winds and large seas are forecast across the basin Wed night as the front pushes SE of the basin behind the front starting Wed. The front will push SE of the basin by early Thu with conditions gradually improving through the end of the week as high pressure builds in. Meanwhile, convection associated with the remnants of Sara, currently over the Yucatan Peninsula, will move into the Bay of Campeche today, eventually merging with the cold front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from south of the Leeward Islands to 16N64W with a trough from that point to 14N70W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the stationary front and trough. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are in the Lee of Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras within the NW Caribbean. Gentle to locally fresh winds are noted in the Windward Passage, lee of Jamaica, and south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the NW Caribbean, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere where the locally fresh wind plumes are, and 3 ft or less across the remainder of the basin, except 6 to 8 ft near Atlantic Passages. For the forecast, the remnants of Sara, and associated convection, currently over the Bay of Campeche will continue to shift away from the NW Caribbean through tonight while dissipating. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic through tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish by Tue as the next cold front moves toward the area from the NW. The front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Wed night, reaching from central Cuba to near NE Nicaragua early Fri with increasing winds and building seas behind it. Meanwhile, seas of around 8 ft in northerly swell in the Atlantic passages will subside today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging anchored by a high pressure over the western Atlantic is building across the western subtropical Atlantic waters in the wake of a stationary front that extends from 31N50W southwest to the Leeward Islands. A pre-frontal trough is producing scattered moderate convection within 250 nm ahead of the front. Seas range 8 to 11 ft in NW to N swell. The reinforcing trough is bringing reinforcing swell as well as fresh to strong winds. Fresh to strong S-SW winds are also N of 28.5N in the area of convection. To the east, a 1008 mb low is near 30N24W with a related trough extending NE of the low. Moderate winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are near the low. Broad ridging with gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will have active convection persisting within 200 nm ahead of the front through tonight. Large seas are following the front and will continue through tonight. A reinforcing front or trough will clip the NE waters on Tue, with increasing winds and building seas. The next cold front may move off the SE United States late Wed night, with another round of increasing winds and building seas. This front may reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by early Fri. $$ AReinhart