045 AXNT20 KNHC 191803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Nov 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... The current Gulf of Mexico cold front is expected to be along 27N83W 22N90W 18N94W, at 30 hours in the forecast period, by tomorrow Wednesday in the afternoon. Expect gale-force NW-to-N winds, and rough seas, from 20.5N southward from the front westward. Expect strong N winds, and moderate to rough seas, elsewhere from the front westward, from 91W westward. A cold front passes through south central Louisiana, to 27N94W in the Gulf, to 23N100W in Mexico. A surface trough is within 20 nm to the east of the front in southern Louisiana. The same trough reaches a 1005 mb 25N93W Gulf low pressure center, which is the remnant low pressure center of Sara. The trough continues to the coast of Mexico near 21N98W. A warm front passes through the Florida Panhandle to the Tampa metropolitan area. Near gale-force SE winds are from 25N northward between 85W and 90W. Fresh to strong SE winds are elsewhere from 90W eastward. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are from the cold front northward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 23N northward within 240 nm to 360 nm to the east of the cold front. Rough seas are in the central two-thirds of the Gulf. Moderate seas are in the westernmost areas. Slight to moderate seas are on the eastern side of the rough seas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone close to 08N12W, to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W, to 06N27W 09N35W 10N43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N southward between 09W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for all the information that is about the current Gulf of Mexico cold front, the wind speeds, the sea heights, and the precipitation. Gale- force winds are expected by tomorrow Wednesday afternoon. A cold front extends from SE Louisiana to NE Mexico near 24N97W. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are ahead of the front mainly N of 22N. The front will reach from 30N84W to a 1007 mb low pressure located near 26N86W to 20N96W by Wed morning, and will be SE of the basin by Thu morning. Minimal gale force winds will briefly develop in the wake of the front in the SW Gulf near the Veracruz area by Wed afternoon and night. Meanwhile, a large area of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front mainly N of 24N. Part of this convective activity is somewhat associated with the remnants of Sara. A band of moisture will persist ahead of the front keeping the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build in across the basin for the end of the week with conditions improving across the area on Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through 24N50W in the Atlantic Ocean, 16N61W close to Guadeloupe. A shear line continues from 16N61W, to 14N67W, and 13N74W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 12N to 14N, from Grenada to St. Lucia, between 59W and 61W; and from 10N to 11N between 59W and 61W. Rainshowers are elsewhere within 60 nm on either side of the front/shear line boundary in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong SE winds are from 15N northward from 81W westward in the NW corner of the area. Mostly fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 14N northward between 70W and 75W. An exception is for some strong NE to E winds that are within 120 nm to the south of Hispaniola between 70W and 74W. Moderate NE to E winds are between 70W and 80W. Moderate or slower winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate 4 feet to 5 feet seas cover the areas that are from the NW corner, to the southern coastal waters of Jamaica, to the southern coastal waters of Puerto Rico. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC, are: 1.85 in Guadeloupe; 0.02 in Merida in Mexico; and 0.01 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Fresh to strong SE winds in the NW Caribbean will gradually diminish through tonight as a cold front moves through the Gulf of Mexico. The front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Wed night, reaching from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu morning, and from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Fri morning. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow the front, forecast to extend from near the Windward Passage to the Costa Rica and Panama border early on Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 31N45W, to 24N50W and 16N61W close to Guadeloupe. Rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the front/shear line boundary. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere within 570 nm to the east and to the southeast of the stationary front. Fresh to strong southerly winds are from 27N northward between 40W and the stationary front. Rough seas are to the north of 30N40W 28N50W 26N60W 31N68W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the areas that are between the stationary front and 77W. Slight to moderate seas are from 77W westward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the west of the stationary front. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 28N76W. A 1012 mb low pressure center is close to 30N23W. A surface trough curves away from the 1012 mb low pressure center, to 28N21W 24N28W 31N35W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 135 nm to the north of the surface trough. Fresh winds are within 180 nm of the low pressure center in the E semicircle. Fresh NE winds are from the ITCZ to 12N between 20W and 40W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 04N southward between 37W and 44W. Rough seas are from 25N northward between 22W and 36W. Fresh or faster cyclonic wind flow is from 31N73W 29N68W 28N62W 31N52W northward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles between 70W and 78W. Fresh NE winds are from the ITCZ to 12N between 20W and 40W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 04N southward between 37W and 44W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A weak stationary front in the far SE waters will linger through mid-week before dissipating. High pressure of 1018 mb located near 28N76W dominates the majority of the basin with a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. A reinforcing cold front will reach the NE waters later today with increasing winds. This feature will also reinforce northerly swell of 8 to 11 ft currently affecting the waters N of 25N and E of 65W. The next cold front is forecast to move into the NW waters Wed night, reaching from from 31N76W to central Cuba by Thu morning, from 31N68W to eastern Cuba by Fri morning, and from 31N62W to near the Windward Passage on Sat morning. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas on either side of the front. Northerly swell of up to 12 or 13 ft is expected behind the front and N of 30N Fri night into Sat. $$ mt/gr