000
AXNT20 KNHC 192237
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 1004 mb 
low pressure located over SE Mississippi to NE Mexico near 22N98W.
Fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are ahead of
the front mainly N of 25N. The front will reach from the Florida 
Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche Wed morning, and will be 
SE of the basin by Thu morning. Minimal gale force winds will 
briefly develop in the wake of the front in the SW Gulf near the 
Veracruz area by Wed afternoon and Wed night. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 08N12W to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 
11N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 
from 02N to 09N between 22W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the Gale Warning
near Veracruz. 

A cold front extends from SE Mississippi to NE Mexico near 22N98W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted ahead of the front
in the central and eastern Gulf from 24N to 30N between 83W and
91W. Frequent lightning and gusty winds are noted with this
convection and likely locally rough seas. In the western Gulf,
gentle to moderate N to NW winds are noted. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in
the northeastern Gulf especially right off the Florida Panhandle.
Seas range 4 to 6 ft across the rest of the basin, except seas to
4 ft in the Bay of Campeche. 

For the forecast, the front will reach from the Florida Big Bend 
to the central Bay of Campeche Wed morning, and will be SE of the 
basin by Thu morning. Minimal gale force winds will briefly 
develop in the wake of the front in the SW Gulf near the Veracruz 
area by Wed afternoon and Wed night. Meanwhile, a large area of 
showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front mainly N of 24N. 
Part of this convective activity is somewhat associated with the 
remnants of Sara. A band of moisture will persist ahead of the 
front keeping the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. High 
pressure will build in across the basin for the end of the week 
with conditions improving across the area on Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends from the Leeward Islands near 17N62W to 10N65W. 
A shearline is also analyzed in the central Caribbean from 14N67W 
to 13N76W. Scattered showers are noted near these features. No 
other significant convection is noted in this basin at this time. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the central and eastern 
Caribbean with seas 3 to 5 ft. In the NW Caribbean, winds are 
moderate to fresh, especially north of Honduras, with seas 4 to 6 
ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds in the NW Caribbean 
will gradually diminish through tonight as a cold front moves 
through the Gulf of Mexico. The front is forecast to enter the NW 
Caribbean Wed night, reaching from central Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras by Thu morning, and from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by 
Fri morning. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow
the front, forecast to extend from near the Windward Passage to 
the Costa Rica and Panama border early on Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure extends across the southwest north Atlantic, with a
1018 mb high analyzed off the Florida coast near 27N75W. Light to
gentle winds are noted with slight seas. 

In the central Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N45W to
19N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and ahead of
the front, N of 24N and W of 35W. Fresh to strong winds follow the
front with northerly swell bringing 8 to 10 ft seas. These seas
extend N of 26W and as far west as 65W. Ahead of the front,
moderate to locally fresh S winds are noted.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed near
29N24W with a trough extending along the low from 25N25W to
30N34W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted north of the low. Seas
range 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the
rest of the region with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weak stationary front in the far SE 
waters will dissipate on Wed. High pressure of 1018 mb located 
near 27N74W dominates the majority of the basin with a gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic flow. A reinforcing cold front moving across
the NE waters will bring increasing winds. This feature will also
reinforce northerly swell of 8 to 11 ft currently affecting the 
waters N of 25N and E of 65W. The next cold front is forecast to 
move into the NW waters by Wed evening, reaching from from 31N76W 
to central Cuba by Thu morning, from 31N68W to eastern Cuba by Fri
morning, and from 31N62W to near the Windward Passage on Sat 
morning. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas on either 
side of the front. Northerly swell of up to 12 or 13 ft is 
expected behind the front and N of 30N Fri night into Sat. 

$$ 
AReinhart