000 AXNT20 KNHC 200550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Nov 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front curves southwestward from near the Louisiana-Florida border to just south of Tampico, Mexico. This front is expected to pass south of Veracruz, Mexico on Tuesday afternoon. Afterward, a 1014 mb high currently near the Texas coast will strengthen and build southward, causing fresh to strong northerly winds and very rough seas across the western Gulf of Mexico. These winds offshore of Veracruz are going to peak at strong to gale-force, while seas will range from 11 to 15 ft from Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, then gradually subside Wednesday afternoon. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast near Freetown, then extends westward to 08N15W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 08N15W across 05N30W to 04N40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 03N to 08N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 14W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 180 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 23W and 37W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning near Veracruz. Aided by strong divergent winds aloft, convergent southerly winds east of the cold front mentioned in the Special Features section are producing numerous moderate to scattered strong convection across the eastern and south-central Gulf. Fresh to strong SE to SW winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Mostly gentle SW to NW winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are noted at the south-central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate S to NW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from southwestern Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed evening before exiting the Gulf. In response, fresh to strong winds along with very rough seas being reinforced behind it will start by early Wed. Meanwhile, gale-force winds will develop offshore Veracruz Wed evening through early Thur morning. Afterward, a high pressure moving eastward from the Texas-Mexico coast should allow marine conditions to gradually improve from west to east through the end of the week. This high will anchor at the northeastern Gulf Sun, which will provide gentle to moderate SE to S winds for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A modest surface trough is causing patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms at the central basin, including waters between Jamaica and Haiti. Convergent trade winds are generating similar conditions near the southern Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas exist at the waters near Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SE winds in the northwestern basin will gradually diminish through tonight as a cold front moves through the Gulf of Mexico. The front is forecast to enter the northwestern basin Wed night, reaching from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu morning, and from eastern Cuba to northeastern Honduras by Fri morning. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow it across the basin. It is forecast to locate from near the Windward Passage to the Costa Rica and Panama border early on Sat, where it should stall and gradually dissipate. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N43W to just east of the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and up to 100 nm east of this boundary east of 50W. Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 60 nm south of this boundary west of 50W. To the south, a surface trough is generating scattered moderate convection from 10N to 13N between 42W and 49W. At the eastern Atlantic, an upper-level low near 29N22W is producing scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms near and northwest of the Canary Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas at 10 to 12 ft in large northerly swell are evident south of a frontal boundary near Bermuda, north of 27N between 50W and 65W. Farther east, fresh SE to SW winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are near the stationary front north of 25N between 40W and 50W. Moderate to fresh S winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted off the central and northeastern Florida coast. Otherwise, a 1016 mb high north of the Bahamas and a surface ridge at the east Atlantic near 35W are providing light to gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell, north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and the Florida- Georgia coast. For the Tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between the central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NNE to ESE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells exist. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front in is expected to dissipate on Wed. The next cold front is forecast to move off the Georgia/Florida coast by Wed evening, reaching from 31N74W to central Cuba by Thu morning. It will continue moving eastward and reach from 31N68W to eastern Cuba by Fri morning, and from 31N61W to near the Windward Passage on Sat morning. The front will stall in that general vicinity and gradually dissipate through the end of the weekend. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas on either side of the front north of 25N. $$ Chan