000 AXNT20 KNHC 200906 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Nov 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near Tallahassee, Florida to 23N91W to near Tampico, Mexico. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front. This front is expected to pass south of Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon. Afterward, a 1015 mb high currently near the Texas coast will strengthen and build southward, causing fresh to strong northerly winds and very rough seas across the western Gulf of Mexico. These winds offshore of Veracruz are going to peak at strong to gale- force, while seas will range from 11 to 15 ft from tonight through Thu morning, then gradually subside Thu afternoon. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast near 08N13W to 08N15W. The ITCZ extends from 08N15W to 05N30W to 03N42W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 10.5N between 21W and 38W. Similar convection is noted from 09N to 14.5N between 42W and 49W near a surface trough just N of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near northwestern Colombia and off the coast of Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning near Veracruz. A cold front extends from near Tallahassee, Florida to 23N91W to near Tampico, Mexico. Numerous showers and thunderstorms with fresh to strong winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are N of 25N and ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds follow the front along with 4 to 7 ft seas. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are N of 25N and ahead of the front. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are elsewhere N of 22N and ahead of the front, except 3 ft or less S of 22N and west of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from SW Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula this evening before exiting the basin with fresh to strong winds being reinforced behind it starting early Wed along with building seas. Meanwhile, gale force winds will develop offshore Veracruz this afternoon through tonight. High pressure will build behind the front with marine conditions gradually improving from W to E through the end of the week. High pressure will become centered over the NE Gulf Sun when gentle to moderate SE to S winds will prevail over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The remnants of an old frontal boundary in the eastern Caribbean along 13N is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 11N to 14N between 63W and 79W. Deep convection associated with a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico is approaching the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh SE winds are present in the NW Caribbean W of 85W where the pressure gradient is locally tight. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the basin, except light and variable in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the NW and S-central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere, except 1 to 3 ft in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will approach the NW Caribbean today with scattered thunderstorms ahead of it. The front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean tonight, reaching from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu morning, and from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Fri morning. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow the front, forecast to extend from near the Windward Passage to the Costa Rica and Panama border early on Sat, where the front should stall and gradually dissipated. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic near across 31N44W to just east of the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and up to 210 nm E of this boundary. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are N of 25N and E of the trough to 40W where seas are 6 to 8 ft. A reinforcing frontal trough extends from 31N54W to 27N62W with fresh to strong SW winds N of 28N and E of the front to 49W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere N of 27N between 55W and 66W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in northerly swell are found across the waters N of 22N between 40W and 68W. Low pressure is in the eastern Atlantic near 28.5N25.5W with some scattered showers possible N of 29N between 21W and 25W. Moderate to fresh winds are N of 29N to the E of 30W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the waters, except moderate to fresh offshore NE Florida ahead of an approaching cold front currently W of the area. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere E of 70W, and 3 to 5 ft W of 70W. For the forecast W of 55W, a weak stationary front in the far SE waters will dissipate today. In the NE waters, a reinforcing cold front is moving across with fresh to strong winds. This feature will also reinforce northerly swell of 8 to 12 ft currently affecting the waters N of 22N and E of 67W. The next cold front is forecast to move into the NW waters later today with fresh to strong winds offshore NE Florida ahead of it and active convection, reaching from from 31N74W to central Cuba by Thu morning, from 31N68W to eastern Cuba by Fri morning, and from 31N61W to near the Windward Passage on Sat morning. The front will stall in that general vicinity and gradually dissipate through the end of the weekend. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas on either side of the front N of 25N. $$ Lewitsky