000 AXNT20 KNHC 201755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Nov 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... NW-to-N gale-force winds, and rough seas, are imminent in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The current first cold front is passing through the Florida Panhandle, to the central Gulf, to the SW corner of the area near 19N96W. The gale-force winds, and the rough seas, will be from 21N southward from the front westward. Expect: strong NW-to-N winds elsewhere from the front westward. Expect moderate to rough seas, elsewhere from 91W westward. The gale-force winds, and the rough seas, are forecast to continue until Thursday morning tomorrow. A surface trough is about 120 nm to the east of the first cold front, from 23N northward. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are to the east of the surface trough. Moderate to rough seas in general are in the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are in the southern half of the Gulf of Mexico. A second cold front is about 330 nm to the WNW of the first cold front. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 19N in the NE Yucatan Peninsula to 23N in the Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 23N to 28N in Florida between 80W and 85W; and from 20N to 21N between 96W and 98W at the coast of Mexico. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 09N22W, 05N34W 05N43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 20W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for all the information that is about the current Gulf of Mexico cold front, the gale-force winds and the other wind speeds, the sea heights, and the precipitation. A cold front extends from near Tallahassee, Florida to Tampico, Mexico. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front forecast to reach from SW Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula this evening before exiting the basin. Minimal gale force winds will develop offshore Veracruz this afternoon through tonight. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas are expected elsewhere behind the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with marine conditions gradually improving from W to E through the end of the week. High pressure will become centered over the NE Gulf Sun when gentle to moderate SE to S winds will prevail over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The southernmost point of a dissipating stationary front reaches the NE corner of the area, close to 18N62W, just to the north of Antigua and Barbuda, and just to the east of Anguilla. A surface trough is along 62W/64W from 17N southward to Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate/strong rainshowers are from 13N to 20N between 54W and the 62W/64W surface trough, and from 14N southward between the surface trough and 70W. The monsoon trough is along 12N71W 11N76W, beyond 13N84W at the coast of Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 14N southward from 70W westward. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the Yucatan Channel. The precipitation is related to the Gulf of Mexico cold front and surface trough. Mostly moderate to some fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow is from the Windward Passage eastward. Moderate or slower surface anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. Slight to moderate seas are in the coastal waters of Colombia. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 20/1200 UTC, are: 0.23 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; 0.19 in Guadeloupe; and 0.04 in Veracruz in Mexico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will approach the NW Caribbean today with a band of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. The front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean tonight, reaching from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu morning, and from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Fri morning. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow the front, forecast to extend from near the Windward Passage to the Costa Rica and Panama border early on Sat, where the front should stall and gradually dissipated. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front is along 31N44W, to 24N50W, to close to 18N62W, just to the north of Antigua and Barbuda, and just to the east of Anguilla. Fresh to strong W-to-SW winds are from 26N northward between the dissipating front and 60W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from 23N northward between 39W and the dissipating front. Precipitation: isolated moderate/strong rainshowers are from 13N to 20N between 54W and the 62W/64W surface trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N northward between 30W and the dissipating front. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 26N72W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the dissipating front northwestward. Strong SW winds are from 29N northward between 79W and 81W. Fresh southerly winds are elsewhere from 77W westward. A surface trough is along 14N45W 09N48W. Moderate to fresh cyclonic surface winds are from 12N to 14N between 40W and 50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 08N to 20N between 36W and 53W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is close to 28N27W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery. Moderate to fresh cyclonic surface winds are 26N northward from 20W eastward, on the eastern side of a 30N18W 23N16W surface trough. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 32W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 24N northward from 24W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from the ITCZ to 12N between 30W and 40W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from the ITCZ southward between 20W and 40W. Rough seas in northerly swell are from 25N northward between 40W and 63W. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 70W eastward. Slight to moderate seas are from 70W westward. A weak stationary front in the far SE waters will dissipate today. In the NE waters, a reinforcing cold front is moving across with fresh to strong winds. This feature will also reinforce northerly swell of 8 to 12 ft currently affecting the waters N of 22N and E of 67W. The next cold front is forecast to move into the NW waters later today, reaching from 31N74W to central Cuba by Thu morning, from 31N68W to eastern Cuba by Fri morning, and from 31N61W to near the Windward Passage on Sat morning. Then, the front will stall in that general vicinity and gradually dissipate through the end of the weekend. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas on either side of the front N of 25N. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front. $$ mt/gr