000 AXNT20 KNHC 202148 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Nov 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near Panama City, Florida to south of Veracruz, Mexico in the southwest Gulf. A 1029 mb high currently over Texas is building southward, supporting fresh to strong northerly winds and very rough seas across the western Gulf of Mexico. These winds offshore of Veracruz are going to peak at strong to gale- force, while seas will range from 8 to 12 ft from tonight through Thu morning, then gradually subside Thu afternoon. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... No monsoon trough is analyzed over the Atlantic at this time. The ITCZ enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone/Guinea border near 09N13W to 09N20W to 05N35W to 04N45W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 06N between 13W and 16W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends along 12N over the southwest Caribbean, and is triggering scattered thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters off northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section about the gale warning near Veracruz. A cold front extends from near Panama City, Florida to south of Veracruz, Mexico. A few showers and thunderstorms are active behind the front off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data shows fresh to strong N winds and 5 to 8 ft winds following the front. Moderate to fresh N winds and 3 to 5 ft are present over the far southeast Gulf ahead of the front. For the forecast, minimal gale force winds will develop offshore Veracruz through late tonight. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas are expected elsewhere behind the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with marine conditions gradually improving from W to E through the end of the week. The high pressure will become centered over the NE Gulf Sun when gentle to moderate SE to S winds are expected over the eastern Gulf, with moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active across the far northwest Caribbean, ahead of a cold front approaching from the Gulf of Mexico. A trough is evident across the eastern Caribbean, along 64W. Weak high pressure centered near the Bahamas is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the Caribbean. Wave height are mostly 2 to 4 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the cold front currently moving over the Gulf of Mexico will enter the NW Caribbean tonight, reaching from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu morning, and from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Fri morning. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow the front, forecast to extend from near the Windward Passage to the Costa Rica and Panama border early on Sat, where the front should stall and gradually dissipated. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from deep low pressure off the Canadian Martimes to 31N47W to 27N60W to 31N75W. A pre-frontal trough reaches from 31N45W to the Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms are observed along the trough north of 27N. Weak 1016 mb high pressure is centered east of the Bahamas near 24N70W, supporting gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas south of 28N west of 60W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 27N west of 72W, between the high pressure and lower pressure over the Carolinas. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds with 8 to 10 ft combined seas in NW swell prevail near the front north of 28N between 40W and 65W. Farther east, a weak 1015 mb low pressure area centered near 28N27W is breaking up the subtropical ridge across the Atlantic, supporting mostly moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the remainder of the north Atlantic, south of 31N. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift north of the area through early Thu, ahead of a stronger front entering the waters off northeast Florida tonight, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas. The front will reach from 31N74W to central Cuba by Thu morning, from 31N68W to eastern Cuba by Fri morning, and from 31N61W to near the Windward Passage on Sat morning. The front will stall in that general vicinity and gradually dissipate through the end of the weekend. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas on either side of the front N of 25N. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front. $$ Christensen