000 AXNT20 KNHC 211741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Nov 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone close to 08N13W, to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W, to 06N27W 08N31W 10N52W 11N58W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 18N southward between 20W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The recent cold front moved through the Gulf of Mexico during the last 24 hours. The front now is passing through the areas that range from the NW Bahamas, to NW Cuba, to NW Honduras. The gale- force winds of the last 24 hours or so have slowed down also. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale-force NW to N winds, and rough seas, from 18N to 20N between 94W and 96W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Expect: strong N winds, and rough seas, from 23N to 30N between 84W and 93W. Expect winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in N swell, in the remainder of the area that is from 19N to 29N between 84W and 97W. High pressure has been settling into the Gulf of Mexico to the west and to the northwest of the cold front. A cold front has recently exited the basin. Fresh to strong north winds in the wake of the front are over Gulf E of 96W along with seas of 8 to 10 ft. High pressure is settling in across the area in the wake of the front, with marine conditions gradually improving from W to E through the end of the week. The high pressure will shift to the NE Gulf early Sun when gentle to moderate SE to S winds are expected over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh SE to S return flow develops over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The recent cold front moved through the Gulf of Mexico during the last 24 hours. The front now is passing through the areas that range from the NW Bahamas, to NW Cuba, to NW Honduras. Fresh to strong northerly winds, and moderate to rough seas, are to the northwest of the cold front. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 75 nm on either side of the front in the Caribbean Sea. Mostly slight to some moderate seas, and moderate or slower winds, cover the remainder of the entire area. The monsoon trough is along 10N/12N between the coast of Colombia and Costa Rica/Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 15N southward from 69W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 21/1200 UTC, are: 1.09 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A cold front extending from central Cuba to western Honduras will reach from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Fri morning, and from the Windward Passage to near the Costa Rica-Panama border Sat morning, where the front should stall and gradually dissipate. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow the front through Sat before winds begin to veer NE to E through Sun and diminish slightly going into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N75W, to the NW Bahamas, to NW Cuba, to NW Honduras. Strong or faster NW to N winds, and rough seas, are to the northwest of the front from 23N northward. Expect also: strong SW winds, and moderate to rough seas, from 28N northward between 68W and the cold front. A second cold front passes through 31N43W to 27N49W. The cold front is dissipating from 27N49W to 26N56W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 26N56W 27N67W. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas in NW to N swell, are from 25N northward between 36W and 63W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 24N northward between 32W and the frontal boundary. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 31N29W 25N26W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 24N northward from 27W eastward. A N-to-S oriented trough is along 16W/17W from 22N to 30N. Precipitation: scattered moderate is from 27N northward from 20W eastward. Fresh SE winds are from 04N southward between 30W and 45W. Moderate seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 21/1200 UTC, are: 0.69 in Freeport in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A cold front has stalled across the NE offshore zones, along about 26N-27N. Reinforcing NW swell generated north of the area will maintain seas in excess of 8 ft north of the meandering front through Fri. Another cold front extending from near 31N75W to 26N79W to west-central Cuba will reach from near 31N68W to eastern Cuba by Fri morning, and from 31N61W to near the Windward Passage on Sat morning. The front is expected to stall in that general vicinity and gradually dissipate through the weekend. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas on either side of the front N of 26N. $$ mt/ja