000 AXNT20 KNHC 231744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends westward to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 28W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is dominating the weather across the basin. Gentle to moderate N winds are occurring E of 90W. Light to gentle variable winds are occurring elsewhere along with slight seas. For the forecast, high pressure and associated surface ridging will prevail across the basin through Wed. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf tonight, and continue through early next week before diminishing slightly. A weak cold front may move into the far NW Gulf early next week, then stall and weaken. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will once again develop over the western Gulf Tue night through Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the SE coast of Cuba SW to the Costa Rica offshore waters with fresh to strong N winds and moderate seas observed near and behind the front. Scattered moderate convection associated with the front is occurring in the SW basin, where the E extension of the Pacific monsoon trough also supports similar activity. A surface trough is analyzed from the eastern Dominican Republic and Mona Passage to the north coast of Colombia, and is leading to the development of scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of the trough. Another surface trough is analyzed over the Lesser Antilles, with scattered showers observed near this trough as well. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are ongoing elsewhere along with slight seas. For the forecast, a stationary front extending from eastern Cuba SW to the Nicaragua offshore waters will weaken and dissipate through Sun. Strong N winds W of the front will diminish to fresh speeds this evening. A tightening pressure gradient between low pressure in the SW Caribbean and high pressure building over the SW Atlantic subtropical waters will support fresh NE winds in the Atlantic Passages today and fresh to strong NE to E winds S of Hispaniola Sun through Tue. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades in the E Caribbean will freshen Sun through Tue before diminishing slightly. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N60W SW to E Cuba and the Windward Passage. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N62W SW to the central Bahamas with moderate to fresh S to SE ahead of it, and fresh to strong W to NW winds behind it as well as over the waters N of 28N between 58W and 77W. Rough seas are also occurring across areas north of 25N between 58W and 77W. Farther east, surface high pressure of 1017 mb and its associated ridge covers the central subtropical waters while low pressure associated with the remnants of a former front dominates the eastern subtropical Atlantic waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are ongoing over these two regions, except for areas north of 29N between 25W and 40W where fresh to strong cyclonic winds are depcited via recent satellite scatterometer data, along with seas of 8-10 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, A cold front extends from 31N60W SW to E Cuba and the Windward Passage. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N62W SW to the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are N of 30N within 60 nm east of the first front, and W of the reinforcing front. The fronts will merge over the next day, with the merged front moving E of the area by Sun evening. Fresh to strong winds will affect the SW subtropical waters N of 29N through Sun. Rough seas impacting the waters mainly N of 25N between 58W and 77W will shift eastward through the middle of next week. Another cold front will enter the NE Florida offshore waters Tue night before stalling and lifting N of the area late Wed. $$ Adams