000 AXNT20 KNHC 241036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Nov 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Long period NW swell associated with a pair of cold fronts over the SW Atlantic subtropical waters is bringing rough seas of 12 to 16 ft over the waters N of 29N between 56W and 68W. The fronts will merge today and move to the central subtropical waters tonight with 12-14 ft seas. A new set of NW long period swell will enter the north-central subtropical waters Mon night and will support the continuation of rough seas higher than 12 ft through Wed night. These conditions will then shift over the NE subtropical waters before subsiding Thu night into Fri. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends southwestward to 08N17W to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 06N40W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 27W and 46W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure and associated ridging dominate the weather across the basin. Light to gentle variable winds prevail over the Gulf waters E of 92W while moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds cover the waters W of 92W. Seas are slight basin-wide. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the basin through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will continue over the western Gulf through Mon before diminishing briefly. A weak cold front will move off the coast of Texas Mon night into Tue, extend along the northern Gulf Tue and move E of the basin Tue night. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will once again develop over the western Gulf on Wed ahead of the next cold front, which will move into the NW Gulf Thu. The front will reach from Cedar Key, Florida to Tampico, Mexico Thu night and exit the basin Fri evening. Mainly moderate to fresh N to NE winds will follow this front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends from the Windward Passage SW to the Nicaragua offshore waters, which is supporting scattered showers and tstms over the SW basin. Scattered heavy showers are also ongoing over the NE Caribbean supported by a surface trough and upper level divergence. Another surface trough extending from the Mona Passage to the central Caribbean supports similar shower activity offshore Venezuela and Colombia, and locally strong NE to E winds just S of central Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are W of 76W with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, the weakening stationary front will dissipate today. A tightening pressure gradient between developing low pressure in the SW Caribbean and high pressure building over the SW Atlantic subtropical waters will support moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Windward Passage and W Caribbean W of 78W through Thu morning, and moderate to fresh easterly winds across the central and eastern basin through Tue morning. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast basin-wide the remainder forecast period. Otherwise, locally strong NE to E winds are likely S of Hispaniola today and Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N55W SW to northern Haiti. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N65W to 27N74W. Moderate to fresh NW winds and rough seas to 15 ft are ongoing between these two fronts with locally strong winds N of 30N between 55W and 60W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are across the central and southern Bahamas offshore waters, across the Great Bahama Bank and the Atlantic passages. Surface high pressure of 1020 mb and associated ridge cover the central subtropical Atlantic waters while the tail of a cold front extends from 31N21W to 26N33W over the eastern subtropical waters. Scattered showers are ahead of this front, affecting the Canary Islands. Aside from the rain, fresh to locally strong SW winds and rough seas to 9 ft are affecting the Canary Islands adjacent waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the reinforcing cold front will merge with the leading cold front today. The merged front will move E of the area this evening. Fresh to strong W to NW winds between both fronts and N of 29N will continue to affect the northern offshore waters through this morning, however rough seas affecting the offshore waters E of the Bahamas and N of 25N will gradually diminish through early Wed. A low pressure will develop near the Turks and Caicos late Tue, supporting fresh to strong winds across the S Bahamas offshore waters. The low will stall in the S Bahamas offshore waters before opening into a surface trough Wed. The next cold front will enter the NE Florida offshore waters Tue night before stalling and lifting N of the area late Wed. A stronger cold front is forecast to move to the NE Florida offshore waters Thu night into Fri. $$ Ramos