000 AXNT20 KNHC 241728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Nov 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Long period NW swell associated with a pair of cold fronts over the SW Atlantic subtropical waters is bringing rough seas of 12 to 16 ft over the waters N of 28.5N between 56W and 68W. The fronts will merge later today and move to the central subtropical waters tonight with 12-14 ft seas. A new set of NW long period swell will enter the north-central subtropical waters Mon night and will support the continuation of rough seas higher than 12 ft through Wed night. These conditions will then shift over the NE subtropical waters before subsiding Thu night into Fri. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and continues westward to near 04N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 31W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure and associated ridging dominate the weather across the basin. Gentle to moderate S winds are observed west of 90W, with light to gentle E to NE winds eat of 90W. Seas are slight basin- wide. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf tonight, and continue through Mon before diminishing briefly. A weak cold front will move off the coast of Texas Mon night into Tue, extend along the northern Gulf through Wed, then lift N ahead of another cold front forecast to enter the Gulf waters Thu night. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will once again develop over the western Gulf on Wed ahead of the second front, which will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, and from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. The front will exit the basin on Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is ongoing over the central and SW Caribbean in association with the remnants of a stationary front that dissipated overnight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also ongoing over the E Caribbean, supported by a surface trough extending from the Mona Passage into the east-central Caribbean. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh E to NE winds across the central Caribbean as well as the Windward Passage, with locally strong winds in areas of convection. The remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate E winds along with seas of 3-6 ft. For the forecast, a weakening stationary front extending from the Windward Passage SW to the Nicaragua offshore waters will dissipate today. A tightening pressure gradient between developing low pressure in the SW Caribbean and high pressure building over the SW N Atlantic waters will support moderate to fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage and W Caribbean W of 78W through Mon, and moderate to fresh easterly winds across the central and eastern basin through Tue morning. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast basin-wide the remainder forecast period. Otherwise, locally strong NE to E winds are likely S of Hispaniola through Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a long period NW swell event in the Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N52W SW to northern Haiti. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N60W to 27N75W. Scattered showers are ongoing between these two fronts. Moderate to fresh cyclonic W to NW winds are observed via recent scatterometer data across areas north of 28N between 51W and 68W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are noted ahead of the fronts. Surface high pressure of 1024 mb and an associated ridge cover the central subtropical Atlantic waters while the tail of a cold front extends from 31N17W to 26N35W over the eastern subtropical waters. Scattered showers are ahead of this front, affecting the Canary Islands. Aside from the rain, fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas to 10 ft are affecting the Canary Islands adjacent waters. The remainder of the basin is seeing moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N52SW to northern Haiti will merge with a reinforcing cold front that extends from 31N60W to 27N75W today. The merged front will move across the SE waters through Mon when it is forecast to stall along 22N/23N. E of the area this evening. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough to very rough seas follow the front N of 29N. These marine conditions will shift eastward on Mon. A low pressure will develop near the Turks and Caicos Islands late Tue, supporting fresh to strong winds across the SE Bahamas. Then, the low will stall in the SE Bahamas offshore waters before opening into a surface trough Wed. The next cold front will enter the NE Florida offshore waters Tue night before stalling and lifting N of the area late Wed. A stronger cold front is forecast to move to the NE Florida offshore waters Thu night into Fri. $$ Adams