000 AXNT20 KNHC 251745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Nov 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Long-Period NW Swell in the Atlantic: Long-period NW swell with 12-13 ft seas continue to propagate across the north-central Atlantic subtropical waters in the wake of a stationary front that extends from 31N45W SW to the Windward Passage. The front will remain stationary while weakening and merging with a reinforcing cold front tonight into Tue. A second set of long-period NW swell will follow the reinforcing front and propagate across the north- central and northeastern Atlantic subtropical waters with 12-16 ft seas through Thu. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. Excessive Rainfall in the North Caribbean: The combination of an upper-level trough extending from the FL Peninsula into the Gulf of Honduras, a dissipating stationary front in the Windward Passage, and a surface trough extending from the Windward Passage southward to the coast of Colombia where a 1010 mb surface low is also forming on the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough, all are favoring moisture convergence near the Haitian Peninsula. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring as a result. These features will be slow to move and evolve over the next 2-3 days, which will favor multiple rounds of heavy rain. Heavy precipitation looks to occur from Haiti into the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos today through early Wednesday, while Haiti and Jamaica may see heavy rain continue through Thursday. This extended period of heavy rain will increase risks for flash flooding as well as mudslides and landslides. This information was provided by the International Desks Team at WPC. Please refer to them and local meteorological agencies for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W and continues to 06N16W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N16W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 04N to 08N between the west coast of Africa and 36W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1024 mb located over NE Florida extends a ridge SW across the entire Gulf, supporting moderate to fresh S winds across the western Gulf and gentle to moderate SE winds in the E Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft basin-wide. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will persist over the western Gulf today before diminishing briefly ahead of a weak cold front forecast to move off the coast of Texas tonight into Tue. The front will extend along the northern Gulf through Tue, then move NE of the area Tue night. Another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf waters by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will once again develop over the western Gulf Tue night through Wed night ahead of the second front, which will reach from Cedar Key, Florida to near Tampico, Mexico early on Fri, and from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. The front will exit the basin on Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this front. Winds may briefly reach minimal gale force near the Veracruz area on Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on heavy rainfall affecting the Northern Caribbean. A dissipating stationary front and a surface trough extend from the Windward Passage southward to the coast of Colombia, where a 1010 mb surface low is also forming on the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 15N to 20N between 72W and 77W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring across the SW Caribbean S of 16N and W of 77W. Outside of convection, much of the Caribbean is under the influence of high pressure interacting with a developing low in the Caribbean, with fresh to strong E winds across the central Caribbean, moderate to fresh E winds in the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate E winds across the western basin. Seas are moderate across much of the basin. For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between developing low pressure in the SW Caribbean and high pressure building over the SW N Atlantic will support fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage, and fresh to strong NE to E winds across the central Caribbean today. Moderate to locally fresh trades are forecast basin-wide the remainder of the forecast period, except in the lee of eastern Cuba where fresh to locally strong NE winds are predicted beginning on Tue as a low pressure develops in the vicinity of the SE Bahamas. The low pressure will open up into a trough on Thu while winds diminishing in the lee of Cuba. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about long period swell affecting the northern Tropical Atlantic. High pressure of 1024 mb has built in over NE Florida, settling in behind a stationary front that extends from 31N45W southwestward to near 20N72W where it begins to dissipate as the front enters the Windward Passage. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed near the southern end of the front, affecting the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southern and central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh E winds are observed via scatterometer south of 25N between the front and 60W. To the north of the front, gentle to moderate NE winds are occurring along with seas of 6-10 ft, locally up to 12-13 ft in the area described in the Special Features section. Another area of moderate to fresh E winds is observed south of 20N between 60W and the Lesser Antilles. The remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate E to NE winds and moderate seas. For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extending from 31N45W to the Windward Passage will remain nearly stationary through Tue, then lift northward as a low pressure develops over the SE Bahamas on Wed. The low pressure will open up into a trough over the central Bahamas and eastern Cuba on Thu while the front gradually dissipating. The next cold front will enter the NE Florida offshore waters Tue night before stalling and lifting N of the area late Wed. A stronger cold front is forecast to move to the NE Florida offshore waters Thu night into Fri. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of the front. $$ Adams